We’re not yet half way through the second Trump administration. So how is the nation doing? As usual, it depends on who you ask. Trump assures us that the nation is enjoying unprecedented prosperity and the best is yet to come. According to polling, 81 percent of Republicans agree.
But this large support by Republicans is nowhere near the majority of voters. For Americans in general only 36 percent approve of trump’s handling of the economy and only 28 percent of independents. We all heard his promise that he would reduce prices on day one; many voters actually believed this impossible-to-keep promise. Never mind that there is no lever that any president can pull to instantly reduce prices. Politicians like to tell people what they want to hear, regardless of reality. Trump has perfected this technique and it worked to gain him a second term.
President Trump’s grip on the Republican Party and its voters remains tight. A recent article in “The New Republic” magazine features the struggles that Kansas wheat farmers are having due largely to the effect of tariffs on reduction of demand and rising costs of production. Nevertheless, their support for Trump remains strong. This clearly illustrates the nation’s political divide and Trump’s iron grip on Republican voters.
The economy is seen as strong by those at the very top of the nation’s wealth and income. On the macro side, inflation remains stubbornly high, although falling from a 4.2 percent monthly rate to 3.5 percent. Payrolls have increased modestly at 52,000 monthly. The unemployment rate remains around 4.2 percent with the labor force participation rate falling to 61.5 percent. The somewhat cooling inflation rate and cooling job market is enough to reduce the probability of the Fed raising interest rates, no doubt a factor in the strong financial markets.
However benign these numbers, there is always something to worry about. U.S. household debt is at $18.8 trillion and credit card debt is at $1.5 trillion, that is, 35 percent over pre pandemic levels. Consumer borrowing has shifted toward “survival debt” with more families relying on credit card debt even as they struggle to pay minimum balances. High consumer spending is not because consumers are buying more stuff; it is because they are paying more for the same, or less, stuff. Those buying more stuff are those at the top of the income scale in what has become known as the “K shaped” economy: Those at the top doing well as the vast majority are struggling.
Prominent conservative Republican pundit, Bill O’Reilly, proposes what he considers a simple “solution” to struggles of ordinary Americans. He urges Americans to invest in stocks instead of “yowling about rising prices.” He goes on, “My portfolio is doing great because Trump is—his policies appeal to big companies but 40 percent of Americans don’t participate in capitalism and a lot of them are yowling about high prices? Come on.”
So, as O’Reilly’s portfolio is doing great, those struggling to pay their bills are supposed to shake loose the cash to build a wealth-building portfolio like O’Reilly’s? And, we thought it was Mitt Romney who had a tin ear regarding income inequality.
High and rising prices of food, housing, health care, and energy — there are multiple causes of this and there are no instantaneous solutions, only politically difficult policy measures that require serious work and time to work through the system. And even if the inflation rate can be reduced to two percent or less, this does not mean reduced prices; it means only that prices are rising less rapidly. That’s reality that does not translate into bumper sticker language or catchy election slogans.
Add to the economic struggles of many voters the national shortage of child care — amplified by negligence of our own Wisconsin state Republican legislators — that prevents many women from working in low income, but necessary jobs. Add to this the deportation and/or incarceration of workers in food production and processing, health and elder care, landscaping, construction, and much else, along with the fear of children that their parents will be swept off the streets or worse with trigger happy federal agents not held accountable.
All that is serious enough without Trump having engaged in another unnecessary and counterproductive war. The JCPOA under the Obama Administration was a long, difficult achievement that had international participation, including Russia and China no less. The Republicans with the aid of the media criticized it because it was not perfect, such as not adequately addressing Iranian proxy groups causing problems. But the deal did address the major cause of concern, namely preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power.
As Trump claimed the deal was inadequate, and dangerous, and disingenuously insisted that Iran wasn’t keeping its end of the bargain, he ripped it up and, as usual, promised he could force a “better deal.”
We are living the result of this absolutely ignorant, costly, and dangerous act. As Iran was no longer held to account under the deal that Trump unilaterally ended, they no longer felt constrained. Even though Iran was still some distance from becoming a nuclear power, Trump insisted it was on the verge. With the urging of Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu, Trump went to war without first garnering the support of allied nations or the American people.
Once again, this nation finds itself in a situation where superior military power does not result in winning the war, and certainly not the peace. Trump claimed victory after the first bombs were dropped that Iran’s nuclear ambitions were checked and its military power destroyed. However, Iran still has its enriched uranium, virtually unreachable without a costly ground invasion. The Strait of Hormuz, previously open, is now closed. Iran still has missiles and drones, and is willing and able to use them. The new Iranian regime, once conservative, is now even more conservative. The backing out of the JCPOA and the bombing had long ago cut the ground out from any Iranian moderates that had existed.
In short, there is no easy way out of Trump’s self-made mess.
So, are we better off under these two years of the Trump administration? The Republicans hold the presidency, the House, and the Senate. Instead of immigration reform that welcomes immigrants to do the work that Americans cannot or will not do, and creates a path to citizenship for these essential workers, we have federal agents rounding up those who are actually doing the work. Instead of legislation that addresses income inequality and rising inflation we have tax cuts for billionaires and, thanks to trillionaire Elon Musk, cuts in the federal work force that is essential to make this country run. And instead of checks and balances to reign in an executive branch that the Supreme Court gives absolute power, we have congressional sycophants who either wholly endorse Trump and his policies, or are scared stiff to act.
We have elections coming up soon. If enough people act, and vote, there may be some politicians who find the “courage” to support them.
