Public policy has long run consequences, usually over generations. But politicians are notorious for thinking short run, mainly to the next election. The consequences of thinking short run are starkly illustrated by Donald Trump, the impeachment results, and future of the Republican Party.
Donald Trump is the poster child for short run thinking. In March 2020, he failed to even think ahead to the November election. Had he done so, he would have reasoned that he had better damn well get on top of the coronavirus before it damages the economy that was to be his major talking point for reelection. Instead, he didn’t even think beyond the next sound bite — better to deny the existence of the virus than to take steps to prevent disaster. Instant gratification — it was easier to deny reality than to risk some political costs up front in March in return for future benefits in November.
A more astute operator would have incurred possible, even likely, short run political costs to get on top of the pandemic early, increasing his chances for reelection.
Trump’s myopic short run thinking has apparently affected much of the Republican Party.
It once would have been impossible to imagine a mob of armed Americans invading the Capitol for any reason, let alone having been urged by the President to do so — to interrupt the ceremonial congressional certification of the election, all while shouting to hang the President’s most loyal supporter, VP Mike Pence, because he “didn’t have the courage” to overturn the results of the election — which he had not the authority to do anyway. But however unbelievable, the raid occurred, complete with gallows having been constructed on the Capitol grounds.
House Minority Leader, Kevin McCarthy, quickly affirmed that Trump bore some responsibility for inciting this insurrection, followed by a cozy visit to Mar a Lago. It was later affirmed that during the Capitol invasion when he urged Trump to stop it, Trump chastised McCarthy, telling him that the mob cared more about the election more than he did.
The third ranking member of the House Republican House Caucus, Liz Cheney, stated that there had never been a greater betrayal by an American President of his office and oath to the Constitution.
To not impeach the president for his role in this horrible spectacle that easily could have been far more tragic would have been political malfeasance.
Top flight law firms wanted nothing to do with defending Trump over this mess. The second-rate attorneys of the “B team” were criticized for their performance. But that’s unfair — they had the weakest of cases. Even the most ardent Trump supporters, with the possible exception of Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson, are intelligent enough and savvy enough to recognize an armed raid encouraged by Trump. But as the majority of Republican senators already had made up their minds to acquit, the Three Stooges could have won an acquittal for this case.
Even hardline Republicans from red states, including Texas Senator Cornyn, North Dakota Senator Cramer, Ohio Senator Portman, Iowa Senator Grassley, and South Dakota Senator Thune explicitly recognized Trump’s role in this raid on the Capitol.
While explicitly acknowledging Trump’s role in the debacle, Republican senators saw a vote to convict Trump as a career-ending move.
Most consequential of all was Senate Minority Leader McConnell’s clever two-step with his vote to acquit, immediately followed by a furious blistering tirade accusing Trump of being “practically and morally responsible” for the attack and accusing him of “a disgraceful dereliction of duty.”
How do we explain McConnell’s four year alliance with Trump and his vote to acquit with that blistering tirade against Trump?
That’s easy. It was obvious to anyone paying attention that McConnell never was a Trump fan. Insiders tell us that he actually loathes Trump. And, one has to understand McConnell’s sole objective of retaining his personal and political power.
It was a Faustian bargain; McConnell found it necessary to ally himself with Trump, both to retain his position as Senate Majority Leader, and to get what else he wanted, namely three Supreme Court Justices and scores of federal court appointees. McConnell got what he wanted from Trump and believes he doesn’t need him anymore. He blames Trump for having lost those two Georgia Senate seats and is livid over his resulting demotion from Senate Majority Leader to Minority leader.
McConnell sees Trump as damaged goods and not good for the future of the GOP. Nevertheless, he had to vote to acquit, lest he split his Republican caucus and appear to lose control of it.
Wall Street and Corporate America similarly participated in the Faustian bargain. They would much have preferred the urbane, familiar, and more likeable, Jeb Bush. But they nevertheless got what they wanted from Trump, namely tax cuts and deregulation. They don’t need Trump anymore and prefer to see him gone.
With Trump supporters across the country it’s another story. They are solidly behind Trump, which explains Republican senators’ votes to acquit, even as they squirm uncomfortably, using weasel words and the transparent fig leaf of “process” when asked to explain how they square Trump’s actions with their votes to acquit.
Republican short run thinking to the next election has got them by, for now. Of the seven Republican votes to convict, only Senator Murkowski has to face voters in 2022.
McConnell is thinking longer run, to what he sees as good for the Party, and himself. He desperately wants to be rid of Trump’s looming presence over the Party.
Is he right? Who knows, but McConnell has a diabolical history of getting his way.
How will this all play with voters in the long run? Trump’s enabler in chief, Senator Graham, is criticizing McConnell for handing the Democrats ammunition for the next election.
But that’s longer run. For the short run, Trump is off the hook once again.
— John Waelti of Monroe, a retired professor of economics, can be reached at jjwaelti1@tds.net. His column appears Saturdays in the Monroe Times.
