Things seem to be looking up for the Democrats. Sort of, anyway. But never underestimate the tendency of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Democrats seem capable of winning only when Republicans mess up.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller is running a tight ship. His success in getting indictments and convictions of those committing criminal acts is convincing. His favorability is rising — it should have been sky high all along.

As Mueller’s stock is rising, President Trump’s is falling. But we can’t count on that to continue. Many Republicans still think Trump is the greatest thing since sliced bread — his Republican support remains at well over 80 percent. His support among all voters remains in the 35 to 40 percent range, regardless of his transgressions. 

It doesn’t seem to matter to his low-income supporters that Trump tried to take away their health care, that his tax bill offered them mere crumbs, or that consequences of environmental deregulation falls most heavily on the poor. And it doesn’t seem to matter that Trump’s tariff spat will hurt farmers of rural America, those who voted for him.

It’s still largely about culture; God, guns, immigration and phony patriotism. Falling farm prices seem to take second place to cultural issues, at least for now. Apologists for the tariff spat believe, or at least hope, that in the long run Trump will prevail and they will be better off for it. Never mind that in the short run low farm prices will cause some farmers to lose their farms.

Even though Trump’s loyalty goes only one way—supporters must remain loyal to him, but not vice versa—his 35 to 40 percent are unmovable. If Democrats are to realize results of their ostensible unbridled enthusiasm, they need to focus on several groups. One group consists of those who voted for former president Barack Obama twice, but switched to Trump in 2016. A prime example is those in rural Wisconsin counties, and blue collar workers in Racine, Kenosha and Milwaukee.

Another group consists of college-educated suburban white women who traditionally vote Republican. For this, Democrats appear to be getting some help from Republican bumbling. 

Yet another group, perhaps the key group, is to get those out to the polls who stayed home or, for whatever reason, declined to vote for Hillary Clinton. In Wisconsin, Democrats underperformed with African Americans. Some of this was undoubtedly due to successful Republican voter suppression. Some was just plain apathy. It doesn’t guarantee anything if you show up, but it practically guarantees failure if you don’t show up. It would have helped in Wisconsin and Michigan if Hillary would have shown up.

Michael Moore’s recent session with Michigan citizens who didn’t vote is illustrative. Apathetic non-voters insisted that Hillary was “not inspiring.” Sure, it helps if a candidate is “inspiring.” But how about just plain competence in the ability to govern?

There is one major factor that has been omitted by non-voters who don’t follow this stuff all that religiously, and because of that they might be forgiven, even though they suffer the consequences. That factor is presidential appointees of the executive and judicial branches of government. 

Neither the media, nor the Democratic establishment, including the party organization and high level elected politicians, can be forgiven for totally neglecting that factor during the 2016 campaign. Presidential elections are about more than each party’s nominee. They are about the direction of the country that will be hugely affected by the court system, and by the day-to-day operation of departments of the vast executive branch. The current battle over judicial appointees and the unprecedented corruption in Trump’s cabinet departments should make that crystal clear.

On this matter, powerful Democrats, and especially the Clinton campaign, were asleep at the switch. There were some voters who were not asleep, and even if only lukewarm on Trump, realized the importance of appointees, especially to the Supreme Court. Those more-alert voters were those concerned about the second amendment — guns — and Roe vs. Wade. They realized that this election was “about the Supreme Court, stupid.” 

If this is not now clear as a bell to the asleep-at-the-switch Democrats, it never will be.

My harshest criticism is for collegiate supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders who, out of anger or apathy, refused to vote for Hillary. However, it is they who will live most of the remainder of their lives under laws interpreted by a federal court system, including the Supreme Court, stacked by Trump. 

This brings us to Democratic happy talk about taking over the House of Representatives. Even with current Republican corruption and bumbling, it’s a tough road with gerrymandering favoring the Republicans, and voter suppression throughout the country. But it could happen.

It’s the senate that is crucial to confirmation of cabinet and judicial appointees. Seldom, if ever, has the map been tougher for Democrats. Democratic senators up for election in states that went for Trump in 2016 include those in Missouri, Montana, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Michigan, North Dakota and Wisconsin. To control the Senate, Democrats have to hold all the current Democratic senators plus flip two Republicans. That is a monumental task.

Democrats need to avoid a couple of traps during this 2018 campaign — the progressive vs. establishment trap, and the Pelosi trap, both of which will be fanned by the media. While there is the inevitable intra-party tension over direction of the party, Democrats must avoid feeding grist to the media over this.

Let’s not make this more controversial or complicated than it is. The logical, uncomplicated solution is for each candidate is to listen to his/her voters and adapt to that district.

Speaker Pelosi gets a bad rap from Republicans. Democratic candidates should avoid responding to media nitwits hounding them on whether they will support Pelosi as speaker. That battle is relevant only if and when Democrats win the House. 

That is still a long way off. 

— John Waelti of Monroe, a retired professor of economics, can be reached at jjwaelti1@tds.net. His column appears Saturdays in the Monroe Times.