At first glance, there appear to be many things favoring Democrats for 2020. 

But that can be deceiving.

Why are Democrats optimistic? These columns have long asserted that regardless of policy positions, Democrats normally win only when Republicans screw up worse during campaigns: John McCain selecting “Alaska Queen,” Sarah Palin, as his running mate; George “Tin Ear” Romney dismissing income equality as mere “financial losers’ jealousy of financial winners;” and in 2018, Republicans doubling down on getting rid of health care, assuming it would once again be effective in hammering Democrats.

While some Republicans have finally noticed that some voters appreciate their recently-acquired health care, President Trump apparently has not. No matter how divisive a presidential campaign, once elected, presidents try to broaden their base, and at least make the pretense of being “president of all the people.” Until Donald Trump, that is.

Instead of broadening his base and attending to the effort of governing, Trump prefers the cheers of his fans in perpetual campaign mode. It doesn’t seem to matter that “ending Obamacare” would be disastrous for many voters, including those of his base who have benefitted from Obamacare. 

Republicans have waxed fat for a decade by trashing Obamacare. They have offered nothing to replace it and still have nothing. The best they can come up with is whining that Nancy Pelosi will not cooperate with them in the future and that Medicare for All is “socialized medicine.” Never mind that existing Medicare is not socialized medicine. Moreover, Medicare for All is not likely to exist in the foreseeable future.

With their relative favorability on healthcare, Democrats should be able to capitalize on continuing Republican recalcitrance.

Another factor potentially favoring Democrats is the narrowness of Trump’s victory in key states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Michigan went for Trump by an average of two votes per precinct. Democrats should be able to overcome that narrow margin.

Trump’s margin in Wisconsin was less than one percent without Hillary Clinton even bothering to show up. Too many former Obama voters went for Trump in 2016, including African Americans who, either because of voter suppression or lack of enthusiasm, didn’t vote.

Recent Democratic victories in Wisconsin for governor, attorney general and U.S. senator demonstrate that in 2020 Trump cannot count on Wisconsin as a sure thing. Wisconsin having been chosen to host the national Democratic convention in 2020 suggests that the sleepwalking national Democratic leadership might be waking up.

Perhaps the most important factor, along with recent Democratic victories, is the fresh talent and energy of new arrivals in Washington. Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has attracted unprecedented attention for a freshman. With that, she has already been subjected to vicious insults and mockery by Trump and Congressional Republicans. Her grace and mature response to this media blitz and vicious attacks are impressive, especially for someone a mere 29 years of age. One does not have to be a partisan Democrat to acknowledge that heavyweight Republican Senators Cruz and Lee, and various GOP congressmen, have made themselves look like just plain fools with their recent adolescent-style mockery of the freshman congresswoman.

New Congressional Democrats arriving on the scene include the impressive Katie Porter of California, and Lauren Underwood, who, incredibly, took over the suburban Chicago House seat once occupied by then-Speaker, Dennis Hastert. Former Congressman Beto O’Rourke gave Texas Senator Cruz the race of his life. Any one of a group of Democratic senators should be able to give Trump a real run for the money. And there are previously below-the-radar, talented Congressional members like Cheri Bustos of northwestern Illinois, proving that the right Democrat can win rural districts. 

So yes, Democrats have much to be optimistic about. But we’re all too aware of Democrats winning only when Republicans screw up worse. Democrats can’t count on that. Even with Republican recalcitrance and hypocrisy on health care, Democrats must avoid falling into the numerous traps that Republicans, with the aid of the profit-motivated mainstream media, are setting for them and avoid walking into traps they so often set for themselves.

A major trap Democrats must avoid is the false choice of “identity politics,” focusing on women and minorities versus regaining working class voters who defected to Republicans. However aggressively the media drives this wedge, this division, it must be resisted. This is not an “either-or” choice. At the district level, candidates must focus on their district. At the national level, women and minorities are a significant part of the working class. For Democrats to engage in this false choice is to feed ammunition to pundits and Republicans.

Along with this is the trap of “bold proposals” vs. “incremental progress.” Example: Medicare for all, or improve on what we can? Bold objectives are indeed necessary — affordable healthcare for all. But there are various ways of getting there, including a public option, and they are all difficult. Our founding fathers designed the system to make passage of legislation slow and arduous. Whatever the preferred strategy of a Democratic president, they will face the hard reality of getting it done. In politics you never get everything you want — you take what you can accomplish. Democrats should agree on bold objectives. But it’s futile — counterproductive — to give the media fodder by insisting there is only one way to get there. 

Another trap to avoid is the “capitalism vs. socialism” false choice covered in previous columns. The media will surely cooperate with Republicans in pushing the narrative that any policy proposal involving a greater role for government on anything is, by definition, “radical,” or “socialistic.” The legitimate debate is about the role of government to make American capitalism work for all Americans.

Finally, the obvious trap set by Republicans and pundits: charges of “investigative overreach.” Democrats should ignore such baseless charges and conduct oversight for which Congress is responsible. 

Democrats have much going for them. But there are axes all over, just waiting to fall. Democrats must avoid them.

— John Waelti of Monroe, a retired professor of economics, can be reached at jjwaelti1@tds.net. His column appears Saturdays in the Monroe Times.