Wisconsin, with its measly 10 electoral votes, has long been ignored, neglected, seen as unimportant or taken for granted with its support for Democratic presidential candidates since 1988 — until the debacle of 2016 that is. Wisconsinites are unaccustomed to this medium sized state being portrayed as a crucial battleground state. We’re small potatoes compared to Michigan and Pennsylvania that were also responsible for Trump in 2016, but crucial nevertheless.
Aren’t the big battleground states more important? Texas may turn blue someday, but it’s not there yet. Biden’s early lead in Florida has evaporated. I’ll believe Florida turns blue only when I see it — same with Georgia.
The 2016 election proved once again that every vote counts. An average of two votes per precinct was enough to swing Michigan to Trump. Pennsylvania’s 44,000, and Wisconsin’s less than 23,000 votes, less than one percent in both states, were enough to give those states, and victory, to Trump. It didn’t matter that Hillary’s national popular vote exceeded Trump’s by three million.
To win the Electoral College, Biden needs Wisconsin’s important 10 electoral votes. To win these votes, he needs to connect with the entire state, including rural/small town Wisconsin. That may sound ridiculous to the myopic national Democratic leadership and big time media pundits who are out of touch with rural/small town mid-America. It may even sound ridiculous to my rural/small town readers. But I cannot too strongly emphasize that Wisconsin is a helluva lot more than Green Bay, Milwaukee, and Kenosha. It’s important to remind anyone who will listen — Hey Joe, are you listening? — that back in 2008 Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points, and all 22 rural counties in Wisconsin’s driftless (unglaciated) area went for Barack Obama.
Those mostly white, rural Wisconsin voters who voted for Obama twice are not racists. Nor are they dyed-in-the-wool Republicans. That rural Western Wisconsin district still elects Democrat Ron Kind to Congress. Those counties have a culture of local coops established by Scandinavian immigrants, with a partisan tilt that, prior to Trump, had not voted for a Republican president since 1984. But enough of them voted for Trump in 2016 to play their part in handing Trump those important 10 electoral votes.
How come? Dairy farming has drastically changed in recent decades, and Wisconsin farmers, as those in rural America across the nation, are experiencing tough times. This, while Hillary Clinton didn’t even bother to show up in Wisconsin — even once.
Donald Trump showed up, including a junket to Southwestern Wisconsin. Sure, he was peddling snake oil. But he showed up. He talked to farmers. Out of frustration or desperation they rewarded him with their votes. The most illustrative story of this saga is from an unlikely source, the Aug. 17 issue of “The New Yorker” magazine. The story entitled “How Suffering Farmers May Determine Trump’s Fate,” is a sensitive, well-written story of a Wisconsin dairy farmer faced with the “get big or get out” dilemma, as faced by farmers across the land. It narrates the resulting family stress, financial stress and costs of changing agriculture on rural communities and the environment.
It’s been years since I milked cows, but as a grandson of Swiss immigrants I grew up milking cows and playing polkas on my accordion — I think I know something about this area’s history and culture. That “New Yorker” article is entirely accurate. It should be required reading for every politician campaigning in Wisconsin.
Joe Biden grew up in working class Pennsylvania with its ethnic German and Eastern European workers who surely danced to the classic “Pennsylvania Polka.” With that, Biden can surely connect with working class Wisconsin and polka country.
In 2016, Biden identified a major flaw in the Clinton campaign. He observed that there was nobody in those ads that looked like him—nobody coming off the shop floor wearing hard hats, and no farmers. Now that he’s the nominee, he can remedy this.
This brings us to some tension within the Democratic Party. Should major emphasis be on what has become characterized as “identity politics,” or should there be more emphasis on possible “swing voters,” such as union workers that abandoned the Party, and rural voters who voted twice for Obama, only to vote for Trump in 2016.
This is a false choice. If the Democratic Party is to be the “big tent” it claims to be, it can ill-afford to leave anybody out. This is especially important in states like Wisconsin that have a smaller portion of minorities than, for example, southern states. The election of 2016 clearly demonstrates that a small number of votes can make the difference between victory and defeat. That’s why, to win Wisconsin, Biden has to get some of those white voters back who are yet undecided, or who can be persuaded to return to vote Democratic.
Yes, even in a mostly white state, it is indeed urgent that every Democratic African-American voter turns out, and that their vote is counted. In 2016, the African-American vote in Wisconsin, either because of voter suppression, or uninspired by Hillary, was significantly below 2008 and 2012. To win, Biden needs these votes. But that’s not enough. He also needs some of those white rural voters that voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, but switched to Trump in 2016.
It’s a cliché in some Democratic circles that Democrats can win without a majority of white working class votes. That’s foolish talk that invites defeat. Especially in states like Wisconsin, Democrats need white working class and rural votes to win.
If Biden chooses to campaign in rural Wisconsin — Hey Joe, are you listening? — a place with historic precedent to start would be Monroe’s Turner Hall. Back in the 1960 Democratic primary, future President JFK stood on that very stage prior to whipping the favored “Wisconsin’s third senator,” Hubert Humphrey.
Hey Joe, rural/small town Wisconsin is tired of being ignored. Tammy Baldwin wins here. You can too.
But ya gotta show up.
— John Waelti of Monroe, a retired professor of economics, can be reached at jjwaelti1@tds.net. His column appears Saturdays in the Monroe Times.
