Rep. Brett Davis, R-Oregon, almost certainly will have to win a close fight if he is to be elected to a third term in the State Assembly in November.
His first two elections have been close contests, and state Democrats are targeting the 80th district seat as one to steal in their attempt to gain control of the Assembly. In addition to the extra attention and money Democrats are likely to pay to his district, there are some other interesting questions that could play a factor in the outcome.
The presidential campaign is sure to have an impact on all Assembly races, including Davis'. It is difficult to tell what the Obama factor will be in the 80th district in November. Will the Democratic presidential candidate drive new voters to the polls and make it more difficult for Davis to win? Or will opposition to Obama spike the county's Republican base and end up helping Davis? Will John McCain's appeal to independents in the county trump Obama's?
Another question is how having a Democratic opponent from Monroe will impact the vote. Davis will face either Kris Wisnefske or John Waelti in the general election. Both live in Monroe, which also is the city where Davis grew up and has enjoyed a hometown edge against previous opponents from New Glarus and Evansville. Does having two Monroe candidates change the equation in the 80th district?
And then there's the economy. What impact will that have on the outcome?
A recent poll from the University of Wisconsin Department of Political Science and WisPolitics.com suggests the slumping economy and general opinion of government may help Republicans in Wisconsin - the opposite of what is expected to happen nationally.
While the poll shows a "tough environment" for state Republicans this election year, "it also suggests GOP legislative candidates could find traction with independents because of high 'wrong track' numbers and economic anxiety."
More than half of the likely voters responding to the poll said the state had gotten off on the wrong track. With a Democratic governor and Democrats controlling the Senate, more of the blame for state government going on the "wrong track" could be placed on Democrats by independent voters. The poll showed that about 90 percent of Republicans and Democrats will support their party's legislative candidates - meaning the fight will be over independents.
Which should make for yet another tight, and interesting campaign in the 80th Assembly District.
His first two elections have been close contests, and state Democrats are targeting the 80th district seat as one to steal in their attempt to gain control of the Assembly. In addition to the extra attention and money Democrats are likely to pay to his district, there are some other interesting questions that could play a factor in the outcome.
The presidential campaign is sure to have an impact on all Assembly races, including Davis'. It is difficult to tell what the Obama factor will be in the 80th district in November. Will the Democratic presidential candidate drive new voters to the polls and make it more difficult for Davis to win? Or will opposition to Obama spike the county's Republican base and end up helping Davis? Will John McCain's appeal to independents in the county trump Obama's?
Another question is how having a Democratic opponent from Monroe will impact the vote. Davis will face either Kris Wisnefske or John Waelti in the general election. Both live in Monroe, which also is the city where Davis grew up and has enjoyed a hometown edge against previous opponents from New Glarus and Evansville. Does having two Monroe candidates change the equation in the 80th district?
And then there's the economy. What impact will that have on the outcome?
A recent poll from the University of Wisconsin Department of Political Science and WisPolitics.com suggests the slumping economy and general opinion of government may help Republicans in Wisconsin - the opposite of what is expected to happen nationally.
While the poll shows a "tough environment" for state Republicans this election year, "it also suggests GOP legislative candidates could find traction with independents because of high 'wrong track' numbers and economic anxiety."
More than half of the likely voters responding to the poll said the state had gotten off on the wrong track. With a Democratic governor and Democrats controlling the Senate, more of the blame for state government going on the "wrong track" could be placed on Democrats by independent voters. The poll showed that about 90 percent of Republicans and Democrats will support their party's legislative candidates - meaning the fight will be over independents.
Which should make for yet another tight, and interesting campaign in the 80th Assembly District.
