The Milwaukee Brewers came within a game of the World Series last season and entered this year full of expectations. There were questions about the starting pitching, and the bullpen took a hit when closer Corey Knebel was lost to Tommy John surgery before the season started.
Still, though, the offense was basically intact.
Sitting at 42-38 after a 4-2 loss to the Mariners June 26, the Brewers are just a game out of first place behind the Cubs. Christian Yelich, the reigning MVP, has continued his Ruthian-pace at the plate through the first half of 2019, and free agent pickups Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas have been nothing short of all-stars. So that’s good, right?
On the flip side, Travis Shaw’s bat has been all but non-existent this season, and Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar have been equally forgettable. Shaw and Aguilar are all-stars, so their leashes have been longer than most fans would probably desire. However, given their current struggles, a trade would bring back little despite the possibility of a strong rebound.
That’s why GM David Stearns and the Brewers brass have held on for so long. Baseball is a game where peaks and valleys ebb and flow and hot streaks and cold streaks are a part of the game, which means a massive rebound for both are likely right around the corner — the question is how far away is that corner and how long can the Brewers wait it out.
Lorenzo Cain, an all-star CF has also struggled, but as we found out this past week, a thumb injury is likely to blame. Ryan Braun had the same issue a few years ago, and the hope is that Cain can regain his prowess at the plate and be that leadoff man the Crew had last year.
Milwaukee’s offense as a whole has had a weird season. The Brewers are seventh in the National League in runs scored (15th overall), and lead the NL in home runs with 138.
The minus-8 run differential is an eyesore, however, and a 3-9 record over the previous two weeks is ugly. The pitching has been the ugliest of the bunch. Early in the season the bullpen was weak, except for all-universe southpaw Josh Hader. However, the three rookies in the starting rotation have had mixed results. Brandon Woodruff has turned in a near-ace like performance for the team this year, and his bat has been better than Shaw, Aguilar and Manny Pina all season.
Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta have been strikeout machines, but both have routinely made a couple of bad pitches per outing. And by bad pitches, I’m not talking about hitting the bull on the backstop — they miss fastballs middle-middle. Leaving a pitch down the middle of the plate is bad at any level of the game, but at the MLB-level, it means hard hit balls that travel for measurable distances. Peralta has been moved to the bullpen, while Burnes was moved to the bullpen and then sent back to the minors. A year ago, Peralta was electric in spot starts and Burnes, the 2017 minor league pitcher of the year in the organization, was equally electric out of the bullpen while the team tried to limit innings down the stretch.
Milwaukee has a team ERA of 4.70, but leads the NL in strikeouts and are sixth in walks. The past month, however, starting pitchers for the Brewers have an ERA over 6. While hot-hitting rookie 2B Keston Hiura toils in the minors, his bat alone will not save this team. The farm system was depleted in 2018 with trades for Yelich and Moustakas, which means trading for a useful arm in 2019 is very unlikely.
Veteran arms in the organization — guys like Jhoulys Chacin, Gio Gonzalez and Chase Anderson — have battled injuries and struggled on the mound this year.
While so much looks bleak as we close out the halfway point in the season, there is still hope for Brewer fans everywhere.
A bounce-back by Shaw or Aguilar could help spark the offense, and a strong stretch of starting pitching for a few weeks can bring the vibe back. Last year it was a run from August to September that took Milwaukee from basically where they are at now to winning the division in game 163. Being behind only one game in the standings is a good spot. A hot week — or even a hot month — could wash away any or all of many of these early season groans.
With just one trade deadline this year, there’s a good chance we’ll know where these Brewers stand heading into the crucial August stretch. My guess is things will turn around and it should be an exciting NL Central race in September.
Then again, my normally really-good fantasy baseball teams are sitting in the bottom third of my leagues and I’m almost entirely out of the playoff picture. So, maybe I don’t know what I’m talking about.
— Adam Krebs is a reporter for the Times and still believes Corbin Burnes will be the Milwaukee ace by the end of September. He can be reached at akrebs@ themonroetimes.net.
