"Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others." - Winston Churchill
Nobody ever claimed that democracy is simple. Election of a president might seem simple enough to the typical voter. You go to the polls on Election Day, check the box for president, and the deed is done.
How do those nominees get on the ballot? We seldom have reason to think much about that. Yes, there are primary elections in which a minority of people vote. But the process between primaries and nomination at the national convention by delegates is a giant "black box."
Delegates? Who are these "mysterious delegates," and how are they selected? Normally, that is beneath the radar and doesn't much matter. The nominee is a foregone conclusion. Delegates spend their own money to go to the convention, celebrate with party faithful and participate in the hoopla.
In fact, the selection of delegates is dictated by complex sets of rules set by each party. Furthermore, each state party organization, the District of Columbia, and six American territories set their specific rules on how delegates are selected, and whether they are bound, or not bound, to specific candidates.
This year is different; delegates and their selection matters, a lot. On the Republican side there is the possibility, although somewhat reduced after last Tuesday, that no nominee will have the required majority of delegate votes required for nomination prior to the national convention.
The lack of a clear nominee leads to an open, contested, or brokered convention. If this sounds complicated, don't be too hard on yourself - it is. The mainstream media nitwits, who are supposed to understand this and inform us, are living through their own civics lesson.
I claim no expertise on these matters, but here's an attempt at some basics. A contested convention is one for which, prior to the first vote, no candidate has a majority of delegate votes resulting from primary elections, caucuses, state conventions, and in the case of Democrats but not Republicans, "super-delegates." A contested convention is technically different from a "brokered convention," the latter occurring when a candidate does not receive a majority, even after the first round of voting.
Many, though not all, delegates are either bound to, or pledged to a specific candidate, depending on specific state party rules. Suppose that prior to the convention, a candidate has more confirmed delegates than the others, but not a majority. Then we have a "contested convention." Then the first vote occurs. If the candidate had close to a majority before the first vote, enough "unbound" delegates may decide, or have already decided, to put that candidate over the top.
However, if after the first round of voting that candidate does not yet have a majority, the convention becomes a "brokered convention."
If that's clear as mud, here's an example. At the GOP convention of 1976, neither Gerald Ford nor Ronald Reagan had a majority of delegate votes prior to the convention. So it was a "contested convention." However, prior to the first floor vote, Ford managed to garner enough unbound delegates to secure a majority for the first round of voting. Ford became nominee and the "contested convention" never became a "brokered convention."
As with Ford in 1976, prior to the 1948 GOP convention, Thomas Dewey had the most delegates, but not a majority, making for a "contested convention." However, unlike Ford in 1976, Dewey failed to win on the first ballot. It then became technically a "brokered convention." With that, a "floor fight" for delegates broke out. It wasn't until the third round of voting that Dewey secured the nomination, fighting off challenges from Robert Taft and Harold Stassen.
So how does this relate to the current brouhaha? Prior to convention, it is certain that Mr. Trump will have more delegates than Sen. Cruz or Gov. Kasich, but possibly not a majority. This means a "contested convention." However, if he is close enough, he has a very good chance of convincing enough unbound delegates to his camp to achieve a majority. If he achieves this, he will win on the first round of voting. With this, the convention, though initially contested, will not become a "brokered convention." Trump will be the nominee.
However, if Trump does not get a majority of delegates prior to, or through the first round of voting, the convention technically becomes a "brokered convention," and all hell breaks loose as the candidates scramble for the delegates that are no longer "bound" by rule to Trump. These unbound delegates now have real power of decision. As you follow this scenario on the idiot box, you can practically see those ratings-conscious minions of the profit-minded media drooling at the mouth over this potential impending drama.
Understanding the process clearly reveals the strategy of Trump, Cruz and Kasich. Because of GOP leadership's open antipathy toward Trump, and his polarizing character, Trump sees it as essential to lock up a majority of delegates prior to convention or close enough to a majority that he can attract enough unbound delegates to win on the first round of voting.
Cruz' strategy is the opposite; keep Trump from getting a majority prior to the convention, and not close enough to win on the first round of voting. If it goes beyond the first vote, Cruz needs to secure delegates once bound to Trump but, depending on varied state party rules, released as free agents. That's why Cruz has been hustling these potential unbound delegates, and why Trump is crying "foul."
The Kasich strategy is to cooperate with Cruz to keep Trump from winning through the first round, and then hope that neither Cruz nor Trump can gain a majority on succeeding votes. That would open the door for Kasich.
Tuesday's high stakes Indiana race is crucial for all three GOP hopefuls.
Next week: Some issues involved in the process.
- John Waelti of Monroe, a retired professor of economics, can be reached at jjwaelti1@tds.net. His column appears Fridays in The Monroe Times.
Nobody ever claimed that democracy is simple. Election of a president might seem simple enough to the typical voter. You go to the polls on Election Day, check the box for president, and the deed is done.
How do those nominees get on the ballot? We seldom have reason to think much about that. Yes, there are primary elections in which a minority of people vote. But the process between primaries and nomination at the national convention by delegates is a giant "black box."
Delegates? Who are these "mysterious delegates," and how are they selected? Normally, that is beneath the radar and doesn't much matter. The nominee is a foregone conclusion. Delegates spend their own money to go to the convention, celebrate with party faithful and participate in the hoopla.
In fact, the selection of delegates is dictated by complex sets of rules set by each party. Furthermore, each state party organization, the District of Columbia, and six American territories set their specific rules on how delegates are selected, and whether they are bound, or not bound, to specific candidates.
This year is different; delegates and their selection matters, a lot. On the Republican side there is the possibility, although somewhat reduced after last Tuesday, that no nominee will have the required majority of delegate votes required for nomination prior to the national convention.
The lack of a clear nominee leads to an open, contested, or brokered convention. If this sounds complicated, don't be too hard on yourself - it is. The mainstream media nitwits, who are supposed to understand this and inform us, are living through their own civics lesson.
I claim no expertise on these matters, but here's an attempt at some basics. A contested convention is one for which, prior to the first vote, no candidate has a majority of delegate votes resulting from primary elections, caucuses, state conventions, and in the case of Democrats but not Republicans, "super-delegates." A contested convention is technically different from a "brokered convention," the latter occurring when a candidate does not receive a majority, even after the first round of voting.
Many, though not all, delegates are either bound to, or pledged to a specific candidate, depending on specific state party rules. Suppose that prior to the convention, a candidate has more confirmed delegates than the others, but not a majority. Then we have a "contested convention." Then the first vote occurs. If the candidate had close to a majority before the first vote, enough "unbound" delegates may decide, or have already decided, to put that candidate over the top.
However, if after the first round of voting that candidate does not yet have a majority, the convention becomes a "brokered convention."
If that's clear as mud, here's an example. At the GOP convention of 1976, neither Gerald Ford nor Ronald Reagan had a majority of delegate votes prior to the convention. So it was a "contested convention." However, prior to the first floor vote, Ford managed to garner enough unbound delegates to secure a majority for the first round of voting. Ford became nominee and the "contested convention" never became a "brokered convention."
As with Ford in 1976, prior to the 1948 GOP convention, Thomas Dewey had the most delegates, but not a majority, making for a "contested convention." However, unlike Ford in 1976, Dewey failed to win on the first ballot. It then became technically a "brokered convention." With that, a "floor fight" for delegates broke out. It wasn't until the third round of voting that Dewey secured the nomination, fighting off challenges from Robert Taft and Harold Stassen.
So how does this relate to the current brouhaha? Prior to convention, it is certain that Mr. Trump will have more delegates than Sen. Cruz or Gov. Kasich, but possibly not a majority. This means a "contested convention." However, if he is close enough, he has a very good chance of convincing enough unbound delegates to his camp to achieve a majority. If he achieves this, he will win on the first round of voting. With this, the convention, though initially contested, will not become a "brokered convention." Trump will be the nominee.
However, if Trump does not get a majority of delegates prior to, or through the first round of voting, the convention technically becomes a "brokered convention," and all hell breaks loose as the candidates scramble for the delegates that are no longer "bound" by rule to Trump. These unbound delegates now have real power of decision. As you follow this scenario on the idiot box, you can practically see those ratings-conscious minions of the profit-minded media drooling at the mouth over this potential impending drama.
Understanding the process clearly reveals the strategy of Trump, Cruz and Kasich. Because of GOP leadership's open antipathy toward Trump, and his polarizing character, Trump sees it as essential to lock up a majority of delegates prior to convention or close enough to a majority that he can attract enough unbound delegates to win on the first round of voting.
Cruz' strategy is the opposite; keep Trump from getting a majority prior to the convention, and not close enough to win on the first round of voting. If it goes beyond the first vote, Cruz needs to secure delegates once bound to Trump but, depending on varied state party rules, released as free agents. That's why Cruz has been hustling these potential unbound delegates, and why Trump is crying "foul."
The Kasich strategy is to cooperate with Cruz to keep Trump from winning through the first round, and then hope that neither Cruz nor Trump can gain a majority on succeeding votes. That would open the door for Kasich.
Tuesday's high stakes Indiana race is crucial for all three GOP hopefuls.
Next week: Some issues involved in the process.
- John Waelti of Monroe, a retired professor of economics, can be reached at jjwaelti1@tds.net. His column appears Fridays in The Monroe Times.
