Recent events and polling show Gov. Scott Walker is a very, very long way from the White House as he says he might run for the Republican nomination for president. The most favorable analysis makes him a dark horse contender for the Republican vice presidential nomination.
Walker finished sixth in a possible presidential poll at last month's Republican conservative conclave. U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Janesville, finished fifth in the straw vote.
The governor needs to have a major victory in next year's re-election effort to keep his name in the Republican hearts and minds for a spot on the national ticket in 2016. A new Marquette University Law School poll of 1,060 state residents showed 50 percent thought he was doing a good job. Some 45 percent thought he wasn't doing a good job.
Earlier this year Public Policy Polling showed a closer result, but more importantly only 3 percent of Wisconsin residents polled said they were undecided. The firm said Wisconsin is the most contentious political state in the nation. Its undecided is far below any other state.
Walker will have millions of dollars for his gubernatorial re-election effort. He will be a familiar face on your television screen next year. Democrats don't have a candidate in sight, and they will be badly outgunned in campaign spending. Wisconsin traditionally rebounds slowly from economic recessions, and an economic uptick in the next 18 months should benefit Walker, even if he is unable to keep his 2010 pledge of creating another 250,000 jobs in four years.
But that's no sign that Walker will win in a landslide that might capture GOP national attention. The governor needs something more to attract national attention. There will be other Republican governors who have balanced budgets.
The public-employee union effort to try and recall Walker pushed him into the national spotlight in 2011. Union leaders demanded a quick recall effort, rather than wait until the 2012 general election. Their strategy failed, and the governor got national conservative attention.
The governor's budget-bill bid to "reform education" through charter schools and vouchers for private and parochial school is a potential national attention grabber. Under the governor's budget there would be no limit on the voucher program - starting with the 2015-2017 biennium.
That would be just in time to match up with the Republican nomination of a national ticket. Walker's proposed expansion would be limited in the upcoming 2013-2015 biennium.
The Marquette poll also showed strong support for public schools in Wisconsin. Some 72 percent gave schools a favorable rating and 76 percent gave a favorable view of public school teachers. The percentages were even higher for parents with school children.
Support for the public schools was 77 percent among parents with children at home. The negative vote was 19 percent among that group. There were very few "undecided" in the poll.
The Marquette poll showed that about half of the citizens were unfamiliar with the voucher program. The poll showed 27 percent with a favorable view, 24 percent with an unfavorable view and 49 percent without an opinion or unaware of how it works.
The governor has refused to rule out a run for the presidency in 2016, but would find it difficult to compete with Ryan for attention. The Wisconsin congressman is the budget committee chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives. He is best known for the Republican plan to privatize Medicare.
That may be attractive to Republicans but national polls show 67 percent of citizens like the current Medicare program.
- Matt Pommer, a 35-year veteran of covering state government in Madison, writes the weekly State Capitol Newsletter for the Wisconsin Newspaper Association. His column is published Monday in the Times.
Walker finished sixth in a possible presidential poll at last month's Republican conservative conclave. U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Janesville, finished fifth in the straw vote.
The governor needs to have a major victory in next year's re-election effort to keep his name in the Republican hearts and minds for a spot on the national ticket in 2016. A new Marquette University Law School poll of 1,060 state residents showed 50 percent thought he was doing a good job. Some 45 percent thought he wasn't doing a good job.
Earlier this year Public Policy Polling showed a closer result, but more importantly only 3 percent of Wisconsin residents polled said they were undecided. The firm said Wisconsin is the most contentious political state in the nation. Its undecided is far below any other state.
Walker will have millions of dollars for his gubernatorial re-election effort. He will be a familiar face on your television screen next year. Democrats don't have a candidate in sight, and they will be badly outgunned in campaign spending. Wisconsin traditionally rebounds slowly from economic recessions, and an economic uptick in the next 18 months should benefit Walker, even if he is unable to keep his 2010 pledge of creating another 250,000 jobs in four years.
But that's no sign that Walker will win in a landslide that might capture GOP national attention. The governor needs something more to attract national attention. There will be other Republican governors who have balanced budgets.
The public-employee union effort to try and recall Walker pushed him into the national spotlight in 2011. Union leaders demanded a quick recall effort, rather than wait until the 2012 general election. Their strategy failed, and the governor got national conservative attention.
The governor's budget-bill bid to "reform education" through charter schools and vouchers for private and parochial school is a potential national attention grabber. Under the governor's budget there would be no limit on the voucher program - starting with the 2015-2017 biennium.
That would be just in time to match up with the Republican nomination of a national ticket. Walker's proposed expansion would be limited in the upcoming 2013-2015 biennium.
The Marquette poll also showed strong support for public schools in Wisconsin. Some 72 percent gave schools a favorable rating and 76 percent gave a favorable view of public school teachers. The percentages were even higher for parents with school children.
Support for the public schools was 77 percent among parents with children at home. The negative vote was 19 percent among that group. There were very few "undecided" in the poll.
The Marquette poll showed that about half of the citizens were unfamiliar with the voucher program. The poll showed 27 percent with a favorable view, 24 percent with an unfavorable view and 49 percent without an opinion or unaware of how it works.
The governor has refused to rule out a run for the presidency in 2016, but would find it difficult to compete with Ryan for attention. The Wisconsin congressman is the budget committee chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives. He is best known for the Republican plan to privatize Medicare.
That may be attractive to Republicans but national polls show 67 percent of citizens like the current Medicare program.
- Matt Pommer, a 35-year veteran of covering state government in Madison, writes the weekly State Capitol Newsletter for the Wisconsin Newspaper Association. His column is published Monday in the Times.
