I love statistics.
So it shouldnt be a surprised that Im always interested in finding out what the latest polls show regarding next weeks presidential election.
One poll Ive grown especially fond of following is the Zogby poll, which we publish results from quite frequently in the Times. John Zogby aggressively sends out poll information to media outlets, which he allows to be published for free.
But aside from being free, and published in our paper, Zogby almost always is right. With the exception of pre-vote polling in New Hampshire, the Zogby polls were nearly dead-on correct throughout the primary season for both Republicans and Democrats.
Up until the past few days, Zogby polling has consistently shown the race between Barack Obama and John McCain to be tighter than the national average of polls would suggest. And Zogbys polls havent shown a wild swing in margins as some others have.
The Zogby poll in recent days has suggested that Obama pulled away from McCain, and then both candidates numbers have settled in in the past two days. His poll shows Obama with about a 7-point lead nationally, and leads in enough battleground states to win on Tuesday.
Today, however, a number of polls have suggested statistical dead heats in Pennsylvannia, Iowa and New Mexico. If that is true, McCain can win. Those polls would seem to validate the McCain camps claim Thursday that the polls were tightening in its candidates favor.
The problem with polls, particularly in this presidential election, is that there are just so many of them and the results differ so significantly. Which poll, if any, do you believe? Do you even pay attention to the polls?
So it shouldnt be a surprised that Im always interested in finding out what the latest polls show regarding next weeks presidential election.
One poll Ive grown especially fond of following is the Zogby poll, which we publish results from quite frequently in the Times. John Zogby aggressively sends out poll information to media outlets, which he allows to be published for free.
But aside from being free, and published in our paper, Zogby almost always is right. With the exception of pre-vote polling in New Hampshire, the Zogby polls were nearly dead-on correct throughout the primary season for both Republicans and Democrats.
Up until the past few days, Zogby polling has consistently shown the race between Barack Obama and John McCain to be tighter than the national average of polls would suggest. And Zogbys polls havent shown a wild swing in margins as some others have.
The Zogby poll in recent days has suggested that Obama pulled away from McCain, and then both candidates numbers have settled in in the past two days. His poll shows Obama with about a 7-point lead nationally, and leads in enough battleground states to win on Tuesday.
Today, however, a number of polls have suggested statistical dead heats in Pennsylvannia, Iowa and New Mexico. If that is true, McCain can win. Those polls would seem to validate the McCain camps claim Thursday that the polls were tightening in its candidates favor.
The problem with polls, particularly in this presidential election, is that there are just so many of them and the results differ so significantly. Which poll, if any, do you believe? Do you even pay attention to the polls?
