By now you may have heard, Brewers owner Mark Attanasio and general manager Doug Melvin had one of the potentially most historic days on Wednesday, Aug. 12.
The club fired pitching coach Billy Castro, designated Bill Hall for assignment and moved him off of the 40-man roster, and, what is likely the most surprising move to many, sent former All-Star shortstop J.J. Hardy down to Triple-A after four straight months of batting under .228.
In return, upper management promoted former Brewer and Triple-A pitching coach Chris Bosio to the big club to assume the vacated role, added minor league journeyman Jason Bourgeios to the 40-man roster and brought him up the Show, and finally, brought up super-prospect Alcides Escobar to assume the role at shortstop.
To take a phrase from the movie Dumb and Dumber (which is not what any of these moves actually were), Just when I thought you (Doug Melvin) couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this... and totally redeem yourself!
My first point is this: I have never been a J.J. Hardy fan. Not ever. Sure, I cheered for him in clutch situations, but that was because I was cheering for the Brewers. I have never been a fan. He was always regarded as a good prospect, yet, outside of the first half of 2007 and the second half of 2008, hes never really been that good.
Every year his speed decreases. Maybe it is all from the 2006 season, when he busted up his ankle sliding home during an early game and missed the rest of the season. I dont know. What I do know is that top-flight shortstops dont move as slow as a 39 year old, 230 pound catcher. He may be sure-handed with his glove, but thats only if the ball comes to him. Statistically speaking, Hardy is one of the least mobile infielders in the game. Basically his defense boils down to a great third baseman rather than a great shortstop. Because of his low errors, he is usually rated higher. However, he cant get to many balls - which is one reason he reminds me of Geoff Jenkins.
Jenkins went over two seasons without making an error, but never won a gold glove. Why? Because he was a first baseman with a good arm playing out of position. Its easy to not make an error as long as you know you have the ball in your glove and you dont make dumb decisions.
Another way Hardy reminds me of Jenkins is his bat. J.J. isnt really a good hitter, despite what numbers in previous years show. He hits in streaks, and the streaks are very polarized. Jenkins would usually get hot for a week or two in the first half, then cool down until August when the Brewers were out of the race. Thats when he would hit somewhere in the .350 range with 15 homers and 40 RBIs over a two month period - thus giving him a good season total - something along the lines of a .260-90, 25+ HR, 80-90 RBI range. Nearly the same as J.J.
Prime Hardy example - last season in 2008. After looking average or worse at the plate, J.J. got hot in July and August. Over a week stretch he hit nearly 10 home runs and was over .500 at the plate. He cooled later in the season, but it got his final numbers to be .283, 24 homers, 74 RBIs.
Even looking at Hardys career, nothing really pokes out. His rookie year, in 2005, he hit .247 with 9 HRs, and that was after hitting at or under the Mendoza Line (.200) for the first half of the season. In 2006, he had 5 homers and 14 RBIs through 35 games when he got hurt. If he would have played out the rest of the season, he likely would have eclipsed the 20 homer mark, but his strikeout rate was getting much worse. He was striking out in nearly two out of every three games - which I suppose is better than a few guys who strike out once every four at bats.
In his All-Star year in 2007, he started the season hot, getting out to nearly 20 homers by the break - but he finished with just 26. Last season, he struck out nearly 100 times. In five less games than in 2007, he struck out 25 more times. This season, through 102 games, he had as many strikeouts (73), than his entire all star campaign.
Bill Hall, on the other hand, saw one great year and cashed in on it. Probably a better defensive shortstop than Hardy, Hall likely was the better all-around player for 2005 and 2006. However, once Hall signed his mega-deal, guaranteeing $35 million over five seasons, his performance plummeted. Hardy wasnt moving from short, because the organization liked him there long term. So Hall, who likely should just be reserved as a utility player, was moved to second, third and the outfield (and had his big season in 2006 at short when Hardy was injured).
Lately, Hardy and Hall have suffered at the plate. Both swing at any slider breaking away, and in Halls case, it is a good at bat when he sees a ball or works a five-pitch count. Now that may be good for little league, junior legion or JV baseball, but not for a guy making seven figures. As much as it has to hurt Attanasio to dish out the money, it was worth while for the team to make a move and bring in someone who can actually do positive things on a semi-nightly or weekly basis.
Castro was a sad fire. The guy has been in the organization for over 17 years, working mostly as a bullpen coach. After Mike Maddux saw the big dollars and left for Texas (which, by the way, has a pitching staff that is incredibly improved and the team is winning), Castro was promoted because of his familiarity with the pitching staff.
Melvin didnt help anything by not grabbing more than just Braden Looper from free agency, which could have helped - especially at the Triple-A level in case of an emergency. Lets face it - since July 1, this pitching staff has been in emergency mode.
So Castro took the fall. Its alright. You feel bad for him because hes a nice guy and waited so long for his chance. However, he didnt help himself at all managing the staff.
Now up comes Chris Bosio, who, outside of having a career ERA of under 4.00 while a pitcher, has recently helped Manny Parra out of his funk. Parra was slated to be a solid No. 3 of 4 starter, but walked more players than any AIDS and Cancer walk combined. Ok, bad analogy. But you get the picture. However, since coming back to the Show a few weeks ago, Parra has been arguably the ace of the staff - even better than supposed ace Yovani Gallardo.
Also up is journeyman speedster Jason Bourgeios. He was the leading hitter at Nashville, swinging at a .313 clip, and had nearly 40 steals so far this season. Speed = usable in the National League.
Bourgeios is not young, he was born in 1982, which makes him older than Prince, Braun, Gallardo and several others. But Im guessing he will be very mature guy, as he was likely the veteran presence in the minor league clubhouses and the fact that a guy who doesnt get many opportunities in the Bigs is likely very humble.
Finally I reach Escobar. Some people label him as God. Others are cynical because of their infatuation with Hardy. I, for one, label him as the second-coming of Omar Vizquel. A solid on base guy who will be a perennial gold glove shortstop. Scouts say he has likely been the best defender in the minors over the past few years - and hes only 22 years old.
In Triple-A this season, Escobar hit just a shade under .300. Escobar has out hit J.J. in every level of the minors. In fact, not once did Escobar have a lower batting average than Hardy. Also in 2009, he had over 40 steals in Nashville.
So let me get this straight - more range, better on base percentage, base stealing threat - how does not everyone like Alcides?
Take Wednesday night for example. He pinch runs in the ninth inning for Prince Fielder at first base, with Milwaukee trailing 6-5. Immediately Escobar took off for second, easily sliding in safe. As the ball skipped into center field, like a cat Escobar was back on his feet and standing on third.
How long before Milwaukee fans forget who J.J. Hardy was? I give it until next years All-Star break.
If J.J. spends 20 days in the minors, which would be until Sept. 1 when the rosters expand to 40, he will not be able to qualify for a full season of MLB service, meaning he does not become a free agent after 2010, but instead after 2011. Melvin was looking to deal Hardy before the deadline, but couldnt due so.
Sure, sending him down to Triple-A doesnt help his value - but then again, hitting .220 for an entire season isnt any better. In the offseason, when most deals happen, Melvin will now have a bargaining chip. You will get Hardy for two seasons instead of one, he will say to suitors. Teams like the Red Sox will oblige and give Milwaukee a decent pitching prospect, and Escobar will be the flashy new shortstop in the Brew City.
And dont worry Brewer fans, that wont be the only change before 2010. Mike Cameron, Jody Gerut, Jason Kendall, Jeff Suppan, Braden Looper, Felipe Lopez, possibly Corey Hart and other wasted money will all be off of the books. Mike Rivera will duke it out with Angel Salome (Milwaukees top catching prospect, who is also barely legal to drink) for the starting job, and Mat Gamel will likely be the everyday third baseman - unless he gets moved to the outfield. McGehee, Counsel, and Weeks will duke it out for second base (should Counsel not retire). A new center fielder will be in town, and the pitching staff will surely look much different.
These past six weeks have been rock bottom for this organization, and dont think Attanasio wont try to change it. He started Wednesday, and by next spring there might be just 20 men retained on the 40-man roster from this year. There also might be a new manager and general manager in town.
Im not saying, but Im just saying.
Smile this week, Brewer fans. For the punishment youve had to deal with this season is almost over. There is hope for the future, and his name is Alcides. Jump on board.
The club fired pitching coach Billy Castro, designated Bill Hall for assignment and moved him off of the 40-man roster, and, what is likely the most surprising move to many, sent former All-Star shortstop J.J. Hardy down to Triple-A after four straight months of batting under .228.
In return, upper management promoted former Brewer and Triple-A pitching coach Chris Bosio to the big club to assume the vacated role, added minor league journeyman Jason Bourgeios to the 40-man roster and brought him up the Show, and finally, brought up super-prospect Alcides Escobar to assume the role at shortstop.
To take a phrase from the movie Dumb and Dumber (which is not what any of these moves actually were), Just when I thought you (Doug Melvin) couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this... and totally redeem yourself!
My first point is this: I have never been a J.J. Hardy fan. Not ever. Sure, I cheered for him in clutch situations, but that was because I was cheering for the Brewers. I have never been a fan. He was always regarded as a good prospect, yet, outside of the first half of 2007 and the second half of 2008, hes never really been that good.
Every year his speed decreases. Maybe it is all from the 2006 season, when he busted up his ankle sliding home during an early game and missed the rest of the season. I dont know. What I do know is that top-flight shortstops dont move as slow as a 39 year old, 230 pound catcher. He may be sure-handed with his glove, but thats only if the ball comes to him. Statistically speaking, Hardy is one of the least mobile infielders in the game. Basically his defense boils down to a great third baseman rather than a great shortstop. Because of his low errors, he is usually rated higher. However, he cant get to many balls - which is one reason he reminds me of Geoff Jenkins.
Jenkins went over two seasons without making an error, but never won a gold glove. Why? Because he was a first baseman with a good arm playing out of position. Its easy to not make an error as long as you know you have the ball in your glove and you dont make dumb decisions.
Another way Hardy reminds me of Jenkins is his bat. J.J. isnt really a good hitter, despite what numbers in previous years show. He hits in streaks, and the streaks are very polarized. Jenkins would usually get hot for a week or two in the first half, then cool down until August when the Brewers were out of the race. Thats when he would hit somewhere in the .350 range with 15 homers and 40 RBIs over a two month period - thus giving him a good season total - something along the lines of a .260-90, 25+ HR, 80-90 RBI range. Nearly the same as J.J.
Prime Hardy example - last season in 2008. After looking average or worse at the plate, J.J. got hot in July and August. Over a week stretch he hit nearly 10 home runs and was over .500 at the plate. He cooled later in the season, but it got his final numbers to be .283, 24 homers, 74 RBIs.
Even looking at Hardys career, nothing really pokes out. His rookie year, in 2005, he hit .247 with 9 HRs, and that was after hitting at or under the Mendoza Line (.200) for the first half of the season. In 2006, he had 5 homers and 14 RBIs through 35 games when he got hurt. If he would have played out the rest of the season, he likely would have eclipsed the 20 homer mark, but his strikeout rate was getting much worse. He was striking out in nearly two out of every three games - which I suppose is better than a few guys who strike out once every four at bats.
In his All-Star year in 2007, he started the season hot, getting out to nearly 20 homers by the break - but he finished with just 26. Last season, he struck out nearly 100 times. In five less games than in 2007, he struck out 25 more times. This season, through 102 games, he had as many strikeouts (73), than his entire all star campaign.
Bill Hall, on the other hand, saw one great year and cashed in on it. Probably a better defensive shortstop than Hardy, Hall likely was the better all-around player for 2005 and 2006. However, once Hall signed his mega-deal, guaranteeing $35 million over five seasons, his performance plummeted. Hardy wasnt moving from short, because the organization liked him there long term. So Hall, who likely should just be reserved as a utility player, was moved to second, third and the outfield (and had his big season in 2006 at short when Hardy was injured).
Lately, Hardy and Hall have suffered at the plate. Both swing at any slider breaking away, and in Halls case, it is a good at bat when he sees a ball or works a five-pitch count. Now that may be good for little league, junior legion or JV baseball, but not for a guy making seven figures. As much as it has to hurt Attanasio to dish out the money, it was worth while for the team to make a move and bring in someone who can actually do positive things on a semi-nightly or weekly basis.
Castro was a sad fire. The guy has been in the organization for over 17 years, working mostly as a bullpen coach. After Mike Maddux saw the big dollars and left for Texas (which, by the way, has a pitching staff that is incredibly improved and the team is winning), Castro was promoted because of his familiarity with the pitching staff.
Melvin didnt help anything by not grabbing more than just Braden Looper from free agency, which could have helped - especially at the Triple-A level in case of an emergency. Lets face it - since July 1, this pitching staff has been in emergency mode.
So Castro took the fall. Its alright. You feel bad for him because hes a nice guy and waited so long for his chance. However, he didnt help himself at all managing the staff.
Now up comes Chris Bosio, who, outside of having a career ERA of under 4.00 while a pitcher, has recently helped Manny Parra out of his funk. Parra was slated to be a solid No. 3 of 4 starter, but walked more players than any AIDS and Cancer walk combined. Ok, bad analogy. But you get the picture. However, since coming back to the Show a few weeks ago, Parra has been arguably the ace of the staff - even better than supposed ace Yovani Gallardo.
Also up is journeyman speedster Jason Bourgeios. He was the leading hitter at Nashville, swinging at a .313 clip, and had nearly 40 steals so far this season. Speed = usable in the National League.
Bourgeios is not young, he was born in 1982, which makes him older than Prince, Braun, Gallardo and several others. But Im guessing he will be very mature guy, as he was likely the veteran presence in the minor league clubhouses and the fact that a guy who doesnt get many opportunities in the Bigs is likely very humble.
Finally I reach Escobar. Some people label him as God. Others are cynical because of their infatuation with Hardy. I, for one, label him as the second-coming of Omar Vizquel. A solid on base guy who will be a perennial gold glove shortstop. Scouts say he has likely been the best defender in the minors over the past few years - and hes only 22 years old.
In Triple-A this season, Escobar hit just a shade under .300. Escobar has out hit J.J. in every level of the minors. In fact, not once did Escobar have a lower batting average than Hardy. Also in 2009, he had over 40 steals in Nashville.
So let me get this straight - more range, better on base percentage, base stealing threat - how does not everyone like Alcides?
Take Wednesday night for example. He pinch runs in the ninth inning for Prince Fielder at first base, with Milwaukee trailing 6-5. Immediately Escobar took off for second, easily sliding in safe. As the ball skipped into center field, like a cat Escobar was back on his feet and standing on third.
How long before Milwaukee fans forget who J.J. Hardy was? I give it until next years All-Star break.
If J.J. spends 20 days in the minors, which would be until Sept. 1 when the rosters expand to 40, he will not be able to qualify for a full season of MLB service, meaning he does not become a free agent after 2010, but instead after 2011. Melvin was looking to deal Hardy before the deadline, but couldnt due so.
Sure, sending him down to Triple-A doesnt help his value - but then again, hitting .220 for an entire season isnt any better. In the offseason, when most deals happen, Melvin will now have a bargaining chip. You will get Hardy for two seasons instead of one, he will say to suitors. Teams like the Red Sox will oblige and give Milwaukee a decent pitching prospect, and Escobar will be the flashy new shortstop in the Brew City.
And dont worry Brewer fans, that wont be the only change before 2010. Mike Cameron, Jody Gerut, Jason Kendall, Jeff Suppan, Braden Looper, Felipe Lopez, possibly Corey Hart and other wasted money will all be off of the books. Mike Rivera will duke it out with Angel Salome (Milwaukees top catching prospect, who is also barely legal to drink) for the starting job, and Mat Gamel will likely be the everyday third baseman - unless he gets moved to the outfield. McGehee, Counsel, and Weeks will duke it out for second base (should Counsel not retire). A new center fielder will be in town, and the pitching staff will surely look much different.
These past six weeks have been rock bottom for this organization, and dont think Attanasio wont try to change it. He started Wednesday, and by next spring there might be just 20 men retained on the 40-man roster from this year. There also might be a new manager and general manager in town.
Im not saying, but Im just saying.
Smile this week, Brewer fans. For the punishment youve had to deal with this season is almost over. There is hope for the future, and his name is Alcides. Jump on board.
