MONROE - After a warmer-than-normal winter last year and a mild fall so far, predictions for the upcoming winter are mixed.
For much of 2016, climatologists predicted the U.S. would be subjected to a La Nina climatic event, which would cause cooler and wetter weather for the northern U.S.
La Nina is a phenomenon associated with cooler than average sea surface temperatures and often occurs the year after an El Nino event, which is associated with warmer sea temperatures.
However, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration called off its La Nina watch in September after the climate patterns associated with the phenomenon weakened.
But that was not the end for La Nina. In mid-October, NOAA revised its predictions, giving the event a 70 percent chance to develop in the northern hemisphere this fall and a 55 percent chance of persisting through the winter.
The Farmer's Almanac, meanwhile, predicts a generally mild winter with occasional rain showers throughout.
So what will the weather be this winter?
"It's confusing," said Ed Hopkins, assistant state climatologist at the Wisconsin State Climatology Office in Madison.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center's forecast for November, December and January predicted above-average temperatures for those months, Hopkins said. But the center's forecast for December, January and February, issued the same day, predicted a 40 percent chance for below-average temperatures.
"Different forecasts can use different forecast models," Hopkins said.
Hopkins said that, according to the latest data available to him, northern Wisconsin has a significant chance of seeing cooler-than-average temperatures this winter, while southern Wisconsin - south of La Crosse - has equal chances of either warmer or cooler weather.
Meanwhile, Hopkins said, the state has a more than 40 percent chance of seeing above-average precipitation this winter, although it is impossible to predict whether that precipitation will come in the form of snow or rain.
According to National Weather Service data, the average maximum temperature in Madison last November was 50.6 degrees, with the average minimum at 33.6 degrees. The December averages were a high of 40.3 degrees and a low of 29.8 degrees, while the January averages descended to 26.7 degrees and 13.2 degrees, respectively.
The averages were slightly higher than the state's 30-year temperature averages, owing partially to the El Nino effect last winter.
If the winter is warmer than average, it will continue this year's troubling trend of warmer weather. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies reported in October that September of 2016 was the hottest September in history, continuing a string of 11 months of global record-high temperatures.
For much of 2016, climatologists predicted the U.S. would be subjected to a La Nina climatic event, which would cause cooler and wetter weather for the northern U.S.
La Nina is a phenomenon associated with cooler than average sea surface temperatures and often occurs the year after an El Nino event, which is associated with warmer sea temperatures.
However, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration called off its La Nina watch in September after the climate patterns associated with the phenomenon weakened.
But that was not the end for La Nina. In mid-October, NOAA revised its predictions, giving the event a 70 percent chance to develop in the northern hemisphere this fall and a 55 percent chance of persisting through the winter.
The Farmer's Almanac, meanwhile, predicts a generally mild winter with occasional rain showers throughout.
So what will the weather be this winter?
"It's confusing," said Ed Hopkins, assistant state climatologist at the Wisconsin State Climatology Office in Madison.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center's forecast for November, December and January predicted above-average temperatures for those months, Hopkins said. But the center's forecast for December, January and February, issued the same day, predicted a 40 percent chance for below-average temperatures.
"Different forecasts can use different forecast models," Hopkins said.
Hopkins said that, according to the latest data available to him, northern Wisconsin has a significant chance of seeing cooler-than-average temperatures this winter, while southern Wisconsin - south of La Crosse - has equal chances of either warmer or cooler weather.
Meanwhile, Hopkins said, the state has a more than 40 percent chance of seeing above-average precipitation this winter, although it is impossible to predict whether that precipitation will come in the form of snow or rain.
According to National Weather Service data, the average maximum temperature in Madison last November was 50.6 degrees, with the average minimum at 33.6 degrees. The December averages were a high of 40.3 degrees and a low of 29.8 degrees, while the January averages descended to 26.7 degrees and 13.2 degrees, respectively.
The averages were slightly higher than the state's 30-year temperature averages, owing partially to the El Nino effect last winter.
If the winter is warmer than average, it will continue this year's troubling trend of warmer weather. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies reported in October that September of 2016 was the hottest September in history, continuing a string of 11 months of global record-high temperatures.