MONROE - Survey results indicate the Monroe school district will need to make a strong effort if it wants a referendum to pass this November.
Bill Foster of School Perceptions presented to the school board Monday the findings of a survey the firm conducted in May.
"In relative terms, this is good news," Foster said, noting that he sometimes has to tell boards that survey results show no support for any of their proposals.
While respondents showed little support for one potential referendum question, they strongly supported funding projects related to safety, security and building maintenance. A third question about a referendum to maintain programs and services within the school district garnered mixed results.
Foster said he broke the results down into three categories of respondents - school staff, parents who are not staff and residents who are neither - to remove the bias that resulted from staff and parents being over-represented in the survey. He said non-parent/non-staff residents represent about 75 percent of the voting population.
For the question asking if a respondent would support a three-year referendum of $1.8 million per year to maintain current programs and services, 55 percent of all respondents answered "yes" or "probably yes." After accounting for the under-represented group and those who were undecided, Foster said just under 50 percent would support the referendum.
"This would be a very, very, very close question if it were put on the ballot today. Not saying no, but it's certainly not a strong yes," he said. "It's right on the bubble."
When asked how likely it is to move a "no" answer to a "yes," Foster said, "It's pretty hard to reach out and really engage and educate people. ... When districts go (with a) really, really good grassroots push, you can move the needle, but it takes a lot of effort."
He suggested the board lower the amount it's asking for in the question, because people were reacting negatively to the cost, which would increase property taxes by an estimated $174 per $100,000 of property value.
All respondent groups supported the question asking for $460,000 per year for three years to address school safety, security and building maintenance. The resulting tax increase for this question is estimated at $45 for a $100,000 home.
"This tested very well. This resonated with people," Foster said. He recommended the board put two questions on the ballot in November, with one to maintain services and another for safety and maintenance.
The question asking if participants would support a three-year referendum of $2.2 million per year to maintain programs and services and expand staffing garnered support from only 27 percent of the non-parent/non-staff group.
People who are age 65 or older were over-represented in the survey, accounting for 28 percent of all respondents. But Foster said seniors are also more likely to vote and be over-represented in elections. Members of the school board asked Foster to look into responses broken down by age groups.
The survey was sent to all residents within the Monroe school district. With a high participation rate of 22 percent, or 1,620, Foster said the results are "locked in" and wouldn't change even if more people had responded. Results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percent.
Bill Foster of School Perceptions presented to the school board Monday the findings of a survey the firm conducted in May.
"In relative terms, this is good news," Foster said, noting that he sometimes has to tell boards that survey results show no support for any of their proposals.
While respondents showed little support for one potential referendum question, they strongly supported funding projects related to safety, security and building maintenance. A third question about a referendum to maintain programs and services within the school district garnered mixed results.
Foster said he broke the results down into three categories of respondents - school staff, parents who are not staff and residents who are neither - to remove the bias that resulted from staff and parents being over-represented in the survey. He said non-parent/non-staff residents represent about 75 percent of the voting population.
For the question asking if a respondent would support a three-year referendum of $1.8 million per year to maintain current programs and services, 55 percent of all respondents answered "yes" or "probably yes." After accounting for the under-represented group and those who were undecided, Foster said just under 50 percent would support the referendum.
"This would be a very, very, very close question if it were put on the ballot today. Not saying no, but it's certainly not a strong yes," he said. "It's right on the bubble."
When asked how likely it is to move a "no" answer to a "yes," Foster said, "It's pretty hard to reach out and really engage and educate people. ... When districts go (with a) really, really good grassroots push, you can move the needle, but it takes a lot of effort."
He suggested the board lower the amount it's asking for in the question, because people were reacting negatively to the cost, which would increase property taxes by an estimated $174 per $100,000 of property value.
All respondent groups supported the question asking for $460,000 per year for three years to address school safety, security and building maintenance. The resulting tax increase for this question is estimated at $45 for a $100,000 home.
"This tested very well. This resonated with people," Foster said. He recommended the board put two questions on the ballot in November, with one to maintain services and another for safety and maintenance.
The question asking if participants would support a three-year referendum of $2.2 million per year to maintain programs and services and expand staffing garnered support from only 27 percent of the non-parent/non-staff group.
People who are age 65 or older were over-represented in the survey, accounting for 28 percent of all respondents. But Foster said seniors are also more likely to vote and be over-represented in elections. Members of the school board asked Foster to look into responses broken down by age groups.
The survey was sent to all residents within the Monroe school district. With a high participation rate of 22 percent, or 1,620, Foster said the results are "locked in" and wouldn't change even if more people had responded. Results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percent.