MONROE - Staying in business could be touch-and-go for many local dairy farmers heading into the winter as higher feed prices and lower milk prices are expected to continue in to 2013.
Larry and Linda Disch, New Glarus dairy farmers, had gone so far as to schedule a pre-Thanksgiving auction of 40 head of registered, high grade dairy cows, heifers and calves. But Larry Disch, concerned that cattle prices had fallen too low, canceled the sale just days before it was to take place.
What to do now is a "day-to-day" decision, according to his wife.
"What it boils down to is finding hay," Linda Disch said. "The hay is out there, but I guess it depends on what end (buying or selling) you're on."
Their silos are filled with silage but they buy enough corn to complete their ground feed rations. And to add to the worries, milk prices may have already peaked for the year.
Dairy farmers in Wisconsin usually receive a slightly higher price than other states, but predictions of future milk prices are mixed.
The USDA reported Nov. 5 Wisconsin farmers received an average price of $20.80 per hundredweight (cwt.) for their milk in September 2012, down 40 cents from September 2011. The report added that Wisconsin's October 2012 price is expected to increase $1.60 to $22.40 per cwt.
According to a Nov. 19 report by Bob Cropp at the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Extension in Madison, the October milk price on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was $21.02 per hundredweight. He predicts the November price will fall to about $20.80 and fall lower in December.
Linda Disch said one of the problems with finding feed is that the 2012 summer drought didn't hit just Green County.
"The drought affected two-thirds of the United States" making any available feed sources expensive to get, she said.
In early November at a local weekly hay auction of grasses and alfalfa, large round bales, weighing less than a half ton, sold for $65.50 to $150 a bale, according to Deb Bidlingmaier at B&M Auction Service. Large square bales went for $130 to $175 each. Bidlingmaier believes sellers have finished clearing out their storage of last year's hay, an indication that supplies will tighten.
The Disches found hay in Kentucky going for $35 a bale. "But we'd have to pay $1,700 for trucking a semi load," she added. Their milk cows consume one large bale a day.
Mark Mayer, Green County Extension ag agent, said the effects of the 2012 drought have not hit consumers yet. He believes shoppers will begin to see food prices increase, especially for meat and processed grains, this winter through next spring.
Corn yields in Green County "did amazing well, considering the heat and lack of rain. That's because of (a) better genetic," Mayer said.
He expects corn yield to be between 90 and 100 bushels per acre, much better than the 56 bushel average seen after the 1988 drought. Corn yields normally average about 165 to 170 bushels per acre.
Corn planted on river bottoms, which often flood out, did better than on hilltops this year. But early corn, corn planted on last year's corn fields and no-till corn did not fare well, Mayer noted.
Soybeans tend to do better than corn in dry weather, Mayer said, but this year, the fields averaged 25-30 bushels per acres. Normal yields are in the 50 bushel range.
Grain farmers are weathering the effects of the summer drought better than the dairy and livestock farmers, Mayer said. Their crop prices remained high, and they have crop insurance.
While suppliers may be tight around home, farmers do not have to go too far north to find 180 to 200 bushel per acre corn in the state.
And hay yields averaged out about 3.5 to 4 tons per acre, which normally gives 4.5 to 5 tons per acre. But that is because, with the early spring, farmers were able to get a fifth cutting out of the alfalfa - more yield but at an additional harvesting cost.
Mayer is concerned what will happen to farmers in light of the marginal supplies of feed. Farmers have planted plenty of winter wheat and rye to livestock feeding early next spring, he said, and thanks to the late October rain of about 1.5 inches, those fields are off to a good start.
"That's a positive sign of 2013," he added.
But the area rain fall amount is still 7 to 8 inches behind normal. What Mayer would like to see is about three or four more rains.
"Lots of rain or some snow, before a hard frost sets in," he said.
Meanwhile, the Disches, as most in their farming neighborhood, watch a narrowing margin between income and expenses. There is an as-yet-unknown point at which they will sell the cattle, but keep their farm of 20 years. They are determined to work at it, day-by-day, and keep their spirits up.
"We'll see how it goes," Linda Disch said. Laid off from her off-the-farm job almost four years ago, she has become an intricate part of their farm labor.
"We were OK, until the drought," she said.
Larry and Linda Disch, New Glarus dairy farmers, had gone so far as to schedule a pre-Thanksgiving auction of 40 head of registered, high grade dairy cows, heifers and calves. But Larry Disch, concerned that cattle prices had fallen too low, canceled the sale just days before it was to take place.
What to do now is a "day-to-day" decision, according to his wife.
"What it boils down to is finding hay," Linda Disch said. "The hay is out there, but I guess it depends on what end (buying or selling) you're on."
Their silos are filled with silage but they buy enough corn to complete their ground feed rations. And to add to the worries, milk prices may have already peaked for the year.
Dairy farmers in Wisconsin usually receive a slightly higher price than other states, but predictions of future milk prices are mixed.
The USDA reported Nov. 5 Wisconsin farmers received an average price of $20.80 per hundredweight (cwt.) for their milk in September 2012, down 40 cents from September 2011. The report added that Wisconsin's October 2012 price is expected to increase $1.60 to $22.40 per cwt.
According to a Nov. 19 report by Bob Cropp at the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Extension in Madison, the October milk price on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was $21.02 per hundredweight. He predicts the November price will fall to about $20.80 and fall lower in December.
Linda Disch said one of the problems with finding feed is that the 2012 summer drought didn't hit just Green County.
"The drought affected two-thirds of the United States" making any available feed sources expensive to get, she said.
In early November at a local weekly hay auction of grasses and alfalfa, large round bales, weighing less than a half ton, sold for $65.50 to $150 a bale, according to Deb Bidlingmaier at B&M Auction Service. Large square bales went for $130 to $175 each. Bidlingmaier believes sellers have finished clearing out their storage of last year's hay, an indication that supplies will tighten.
The Disches found hay in Kentucky going for $35 a bale. "But we'd have to pay $1,700 for trucking a semi load," she added. Their milk cows consume one large bale a day.
Mark Mayer, Green County Extension ag agent, said the effects of the 2012 drought have not hit consumers yet. He believes shoppers will begin to see food prices increase, especially for meat and processed grains, this winter through next spring.
Corn yields in Green County "did amazing well, considering the heat and lack of rain. That's because of (a) better genetic," Mayer said.
He expects corn yield to be between 90 and 100 bushels per acre, much better than the 56 bushel average seen after the 1988 drought. Corn yields normally average about 165 to 170 bushels per acre.
Corn planted on river bottoms, which often flood out, did better than on hilltops this year. But early corn, corn planted on last year's corn fields and no-till corn did not fare well, Mayer noted.
Soybeans tend to do better than corn in dry weather, Mayer said, but this year, the fields averaged 25-30 bushels per acres. Normal yields are in the 50 bushel range.
Grain farmers are weathering the effects of the summer drought better than the dairy and livestock farmers, Mayer said. Their crop prices remained high, and they have crop insurance.
While suppliers may be tight around home, farmers do not have to go too far north to find 180 to 200 bushel per acre corn in the state.
And hay yields averaged out about 3.5 to 4 tons per acre, which normally gives 4.5 to 5 tons per acre. But that is because, with the early spring, farmers were able to get a fifth cutting out of the alfalfa - more yield but at an additional harvesting cost.
Mayer is concerned what will happen to farmers in light of the marginal supplies of feed. Farmers have planted plenty of winter wheat and rye to livestock feeding early next spring, he said, and thanks to the late October rain of about 1.5 inches, those fields are off to a good start.
"That's a positive sign of 2013," he added.
But the area rain fall amount is still 7 to 8 inches behind normal. What Mayer would like to see is about three or four more rains.
"Lots of rain or some snow, before a hard frost sets in," he said.
Meanwhile, the Disches, as most in their farming neighborhood, watch a narrowing margin between income and expenses. There is an as-yet-unknown point at which they will sell the cattle, but keep their farm of 20 years. They are determined to work at it, day-by-day, and keep their spirits up.
"We'll see how it goes," Linda Disch said. Laid off from her off-the-farm job almost four years ago, she has become an intricate part of their farm labor.
"We were OK, until the drought," she said.