Elections are said to be about the economy. President Trump surely wants to make that case as unemployment is low, financial market near all-time highs, and there has even been some miniscule wage growth—in monetary but not in real terms.

But the relationship between elections and the economy is asymmetric. If the economy is in tough shape, elections are indeed about the economy. But if the economy is in pretty good shape, the economy may be eclipsed by other issues.

Even though the economy is in pretty good shape as measured by employment and financial markets, does Trump deserve the credit he awards himself? Is the economy in the magnificent shape that Trump says it is? And is it working for the majority of people — especially those left behind, for whom he promised to make it work?

The answer to all three questions is a definite NO.

Yes, unemployment is low. Financial markets are flirting with all-time highs. But this is the economy with the same trajectory that Trump was fortunate to inherit from President Obama. It was the Obama Administration that inherited the 2007-2008 Great Recession, with the tanking American economy about to take the world economy down with it.  With Republicans fighting him every step of the way, the Obama Administration, with the help of the Fed, took unpopular, painful steps to create the macroeconomic conditions that made recovery possible.

Trump does not deserve credit for the rising employment numbers and buoyant financial markets that he inherited. But the world is not fair —and politics never were fair. The way things work is that as Trump has for two years presided over his inherited economy, the mainstream media will cooperate with the Republicans in crediting economic performance entirely to Trump. 

This brings us to the next question, “Is the economy in the magnificent shape that Trump says it is?” The answer is, “sort of.”  Just as the Obama administration was criticized for an economy characterized by income inequality and stagnant wage growth, those conditions still exist. Trump inherited this weakness along with the economy’s strengths.

This has direct bearing on the third question, “is the economy working for the people left economically behind?”  

President Trump hails the recent modest wage growth. But wage growth in real, inflation-adjusted income, has been miniscule or non-existent. In real income, most workers are no better off than they were decades ago.  Many of these same workers voted for Donald Trump out of desperation — he promised to remedy economic problems of those left behind.

Trump not only has not fixed the problem, but his policies, obsequiously supported by congressional Republicans, did nothing to improve, and stand to make worse, economic conditions for moderate- and low-income voters. 

Trump began his administration by attempting to “end Obamacare.” This would surely hurt many low-income voters, many of whom voted for Trump. Why would these voters cheer for “ending Obamacare?” Some voters said they favored the Affordable Care Act but opposed “Obamacare,” not realizing they were one and the same.

Many of those who knew that the ACA and Obamacare were one and the same voted for Trump believing his promise of “something better and less costly.” Neither Trump nor his congressional Republicans had anything better with which to replace the ACA that benefitted many people who previously had no affordable access to health care.

How about that much ballyhooed Trump tax bill? Trump supporters assert that those extra couple of bucks is important to them. No doubt about that—for those struggling to make ends meet, support their kids, save for retirement, and all the rest of it, every dollar counts. 

Low- and moderate-income recipients should pay lower marginal tax rates. But a few extra bucks for the masses should not be at the expense of awarding multi-thousands, and millions in some cases, in tax breaks to the nation’s wealthiest citizens. 

This is the age-old, time-tested Republican trick; give away the shop to the one percent of our wealthiest citizens and throw a few crumbs to everyone else. This is the opposite of what Trump promised.  

After election, he immediately promised his wealthy friends a tax break, delivered it and staffed his administration with Wall Street personnel and sympathizers. After all, he openly declares financial success as the paramount measure of human achievement. 

The tax bill makes worse the income inequality. It is inequitable — unfair. Just because we know that the world is unfair does not excuse politicians from failure to make the tax system at least a bit fairer.

Not only is the bill unfair, but it is a drag on the economy through repressing consumer spending for necessities — spending that would create demand for goods and services, thereby generating employment.

The impending increased deficits caused by the tax bill create future problems.  The rapidly increasing public debt curbs government spending for infrastructure, education and other important programs. In addition, rising public debt will curb the ability of government to engage in deficit spending to counter the next recession. If Trump’s expansionary fiscal policy causes inflation, the Fed must raise interest rates, thereby increasing borrowing costs.

And then there is the trade spat. Trump promised to bring back manufacturing jobs, many of which were lost through automation and technology. Manufacturing workers of the Rust Belt have a legitimate gripe that some — too many — jobs were exported to Mexico and abroad. But the Trump tariff approach is clumsy and counterproductive. Relabeling the North American Free Trade Act is political theater. Any benefits of marginal changes in the relabeled NAFTA are questionable, and yet to be realized.

The major current problem is income inequality and an economy that is not working for all. Neither Trump nor the Congress is willing to tackle it. 

Trump can continue to highlight his fictitious achievements.  But even with high employment and high consumer confidence, this coming election may turn on other factors.

— John Waelti of Monroe, a retired professor of economics, can be reached at jjwaelti1@tds.net. His column appears Saturdays in the Monroe Times.