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Waelti: Spinning the economy for the ‘haves’
John Waelti

There is an old adage: “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure.”

The latest affirmation of this adage is by National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow, longtime advocate of supply side economic snake oil. It’s entirely consistent that the con artist in the White House would appoint one of that ilk as his chief economic advisor.

Many of Trump’s supporters were led to believe that because he was the business man with the Midas touch, he would transfer his alleged “business acumen” to the debt-ridden federal government, and maybe even do something for those left economically behind.

Instead of wiping out — let alone merely reducing — the national debt as he promised, deficits have increased under his administration thanks to the ill-advised Republican tax bill that made life even sweeter for big Republican donors. Rather than improving life for those left economically behind, he increased after-tax income inequality. 

Recent revelations demonstrate that Trump wasn’t the marvelously successful businessman that, with the aid of the sleepwalking mainstream media, he portrays himself to be. Reports indicate he has lost tremendous sums of money. 

Many of these losses are ostensibly paper losses due to depreciation of real estate. That’s believable as it’s common knowledge that an advantage of investing in real estate is favorable tax treatment through depreciation, and carrying forward losses. But most legitimate real estate investors have documented offsetting income in sufficient amounts that they pay federal income taxes.

From where did Trump get those huge mysterious infusions of cash that enabled his continued lavish life style? In addition to burnishing the myth of his “financial genius,” his run on the idiot box with “The Apprentice” no doubt brought him some cash.

But many questions remain. These include, “Where has the IRS been all this time?” And, “Where has the New York Department of Revenue been?” Abuses of the Trump Foundation have been in plain sight for a long time. 

Why did it take the Mueller Investigation to bring to light Paul Manafort’s multimillion dollar money-laundering scam and accompanying tax fraud? One cannot help believing that were it not for the Mueller Investigation, Manafort would still be getting away with money laundering and tax fraud, all while enjoying his lavish life style. 

It’s easy to see why the assertion that “the system is rigged” and there are “two sets of justice systems, one for the ‘haves’ and one for the ‘have nots’” strikes a chord with so many Americans. 

That Trump can lose so much money, continue living the life of a fabulously rich man and attain the most powerful position in the world, all while flagrantly trashing political norms, accumulating executive power, and thumbing his nose at Congress and opposing politicians, makes him a hero to some, proving “how smart” he really is.

If Trump is not the great businessman he claims to be, he has also demonstrated inadequate understanding of how the macro economy works. Sure, GDP is high and unemployment is low. All he had to do was not screw up the economy he inherited from Obama — not that he hasn’t tried.

Trump urged the Fed raise interest rates while the economy was recovering, and urged lowering interest rates during full employment; bad advice, fortunately ignored by former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, and current chair Jerome Powell, one of his few competent appointees.

Trump and his Congressional Vichy Republicans passed the 2017 tax bill that not only makes life more comfortable for the “haves” as opposed to the “have nots,” but was purported to “pay for itself,” and was fiscally expansionary during full employment. While inflation still remains benign, federal deficits have increased, making it more difficult to counter the next recession that is inevitable.

While there are always contentious issues of winners and losers with international trade, Trump believes that a unilateral policy of “getting tough” with China is the answer, even if it means a trade war in which everyone loses. Believing that tariffs are paid for by the Chinese rather than American importers and consumers, and American exporters through retaliation, shows that the “great businessman” doesn’t understand how tariffs work. But his chief economist Kudlow does. He had always opposed tariffs until he started shilling for Trump. 

Kudlow’s recent outrageous rendition of the “liars figure” adage is illustrated by his recent rant. Presidential candidate Cory Booker had observed that Trump was taking credit for the recovery that started under President Obama. Kudlow emphatically “begged to differ.” Kudlow cited that hourly earnings of the poorest quarter of workers are rising at 4.4 percent, while the top quarter was rising by 3.5 percent.

Let’s accept the numbers. Here’s where the “liars figure” part of the adage comes in. Although not technically lying, Kudlow disingenuously spins the numbers.

Kudlow repeats the economic fiction that “a rising tide raises all boats.” That’s a totally inappropriate, and false, analogy. Rising GDP does not ensure rising prosperity for all workers, as clearly shown by history of the last several decades.

Kudlow asserts that “it’s the blue-collar people that have the fastest job expansion and it’s the blue collar people that have the best wage growth.”

Really? Compared to who? Multimillion dollar salaried Fortune 500 CEOs? And if the long-awaited 4.4 and 3.5% wage increases for hourly workers are welcome and encouraging, how about comparing current inflation-adjusted wages with those of several decades ago. Inflation-adjusted wages have been stagnant for decades, a significant factor in recent elections.

Kudlow continues his rant with wondering how he had the energy to “let her rip,” and babbles on about how Trump’s policies have “entered us into a tremendous prosperity cycle. And I don’t see any end to it right now.”

Kudlow, the conservative supply-side economist, doubtlessly believes his own dogma. But he ought to talk to people working two and three jobs to make ends meet, and to farmers borrowing money to get their crops in the ground.


— John Waelti of Monroe, a retired professor of economics, can be reached at jjwaelti1@tds.net. His column appears Saturdays in the Monroe Times.