As COVID-19 deaths continue at over 1,000 per day and many states experience record numbers of new cases, President Trump’s polling numbers are tanking. His tactics of spinning his way out of trouble can’t compensate for cold reality. It’s not safe to travel, to have a beer at the bar or to dine out with friends; and many voters are unable to pay the rent while depending on public assistance for food. Even more depressing, we have no idea how long these conditions will persist, or even get more dangerous. 

If there is a surprise at polling numbers it’s that Trump still has at least a third of the population approving of his response to the pandemic. But over half strongly disapprove of Trump’s response.

Trump’s supporters will accuse democrats of Monday morning quarterbacking. That’s pure eyewash! Trump was warned about the seriousness of this virus. But instead of taking action, he dismissed it as a democratic hoax, insisting that it would disappear by itself. He had the chance to play a starring role, taking courageous, if unpopular, action and getting on top of this tragedy early on. But Trump doesn’t think “long run.” He thinks only “here and now,” instant gratification. He failed — there is no other way to put it.

Polling numbers now look favorable for Biden and the democrats. Let’s face it; it’s not because people necessarily love Biden and the democrats. It’s because Trump has failed the big test.

Trump won in 2016 largely because a lot of people “didn’t like Hillary.” Similarly, if Biden wins in 2020 it will be because a lot of people disapprove of Trump. Presiding over a nation in distress with no credible uplifting message regarding solution portends defeat at the polls. That’s the way it works. 

But if democrats have learned anything, it’s not to count on victory. Trump has survived smashing of norms, impeachment and multiple scandals, any one of which would have doomed any other politician. Keeping track of his misdeeds, scandals and ill-advised acts is like trying to drink out of a firehose. Amidst this pandemic and racial unrest, this will be like no other election in many ways. This country remains strongly divided.

The groundwork for the Trump candidacy, the hardened political divide and the increased nastiness of politics can be largely laid at the feet of Newt Gingrich. Sure, politics always had a rough side to it, but the role of Gingrich is paramount. As early as 1978, Gingrich informed a bunch of Georgia young republicans that, for their party to succeed, the next generation of republicans would have to learn to “raise hell,” to stop being so “nice,” to realize that politics was, above all, a cutthroat “war for power”—and to start acting like it.

When he was elected to congress in 1978, Gingrich rebelled at what he perceived as failed republican strategy of working with democrats to legislate. His combative style caught on, and he rose to house speaker in 1995, the first time the republicans had controlled congress since 1953. Even while carrying on an affair of his own, Gingrich led the impeachment of President Clinton in 1998. While the odds of convicting Clinton were slim, the real objective was to embarrass Clinton, which he managed to do.

The Gingrich legacy left the republican party permanently changed. The tea party republicans emerging during the Obama administration embraced the harsh tactics and rhetoric advocated by Gingrich. Years later, it was with the counsel of Gingrich that Trump adopted the slash and burn strategy that has worked so well for him.

Even the so-called “world’s greatest deliberative body,” the United States Senate, has been heavily influenced by Gingrich. Majority leader McConnell has run the Senate with an iron fist, neglecting to even bring up bills that would have bi-partisan support. For the better part of 2016, he refused to even consider an Obama nominee, Merrick Garland, to fill a vacant US Supreme Court position, this on the grounds that with the pending election, the “voters should weigh in.”

When McConnell was asked if this precedent would hold in 2020 should a supreme court vacancy arise, he promptly replied, “No, we would fill it.” This situation is different, he said. Of course it’s different—because we now have a republican president. Therefore, McConnell’s rules are different.

Gingrich envisioned a permanent republican majority. With a conservative supreme court and two hundred Trump nominees to the federal court system confirmed by the republican Senate, the court system will have a conservative tilt for the next couple of generations at least.

Even the asleep-at-the-switch pundits are awakening to the importance of this election with respect to appointees. Even if Biden wins and democrats retain control of the House but republicans keep control of the Senate, Biden and the democrats will be stymied. A republican Senate will retain control over appointments to the judiciary and confirmation of cabinet officers. McConnell will continue to keep bills passed by a democratic douse bottled up. The court system stacked by republican appointees remains indefinitely. 

Presidents have the bully pulpit, and have as much power as some combination of the people, the congress, and the judiciary. The house appropriates the money. But it is the judiciary that interprets the laws—essentially “making laws” with their decisions. And it’s the senate that, in addition to passing legislation, confirms cabinet nominations and the all-important judiciary nominations.

Next week: Trump and the Senate races. 

— John Waelti of Monroe, a retired professor of economics, can be reached at jjwaelti1@tds.net. His column appears Saturdays in the Monroe Times.