Casablanca, 1941: In the classic movie “Casablanca,” Humphry Bogart asks Rick why his casino is closed down. Rick famously replies, “I’m shocked, shocked that gambling is going on in here.”

Washington, D.C., 2021: An armed mob carrying handcuffs and a hangman’s noose crying, “Hang Mike Pence,” overrun a thin Capitol Police contingent, invades the U.S. Capitol building, causing its lawmakers to flee for their lives and take cover.

The nation is shocked, shocked that such violence could be going on here.

Trump’s glorification of violence against political enemies has been highly visible from the beginning. What’s “shocking” is not Trump’s initiation of violence, but the lack of protection of the capitol building, and that the President’s most loyal supporter, Vice President Pence, was a target. Pence had informed Trump that he was constitutionally mandated to accept the results of the election. In spite of constant cajoling to do otherwise, Pence did what the Constitution directed — resulting in Trump’s accusation of “cowardice.”

If the nation and the powers that be are shocked that the President of the United States would encourage the invasion of the Capitol and intimidation of Congress, they should not be surprised that the mob followed through with what Trump brazenly announced. Prior to the event, Trump’s number one stooge, Mr. Giuliani, rallied the crowd to “battle on.” Trump praised the angry crowd as “patriots,” urging them to “be strong, you can’t take back the country with weakness.”

With the invasion, lawmakers with their lives clearly in danger took physical cover. With consequences of the assault laid bare for the nation to see, some of these same lawmakers, Trump’s supporters and enablers, are seeking political cover.

Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski now “wants him out.” 

Trump’s former Director of OMB and Chief of Staff, Trump enthusiast Mick Mulvaney, resigns in disgust, unwilling to be associated with a president responsible for insurrection.

Former Bush speechwriter, Ms. Republicans herself, the normally measured Peggy Noonan, appears visibly furious over Trump’s Republican Party and what it has wrought.

Senator Pat Toomey acknowledged his distaste for Trump on Sunday’s “Meet the Press,” but was unapologetic for having supported him. His lame explanation for supporting Trump was that it was preferable to supporting a “radicalized” Democratic Party. That absolutely asinine explanation is that of many Republicans. Overlooking Trump’s despicable character, they loved his policies. Some adored Trump for the way he “stuck it to” Democrats, liberals, the media, and others on the “wrong side” of the culture wars.

Democrats and the media who previously criticized Trump for his unpresidential, outrageous language had been habitually chastised by Republicans for “taking him literally; he didn’t really mean it.” Actually, Republicans loved him because they knew “he really did mean it.” 

Those now distancing themselves from Trump — the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board; Business organizations; politicians like Toomey, Murkowski, and others; distinguish Trump from before and after the Capitol insurrection, insisting that “he’s a different Trump now.”

That’s pure eyewash, not remotely acceptable as valid. The post insurrection Trump is the very same Trump as the pre-insurrection Trump. Just as Rick really was not “shocked, shocked that gambling is going on in here,” Toomey, Murkowski, Noonan, and the rest of them running from Trump, cannot credibly admit to being “shocked,” shocked that Trump is now a different Trump than the same Trump who had been celebrating violence for years. His promise to “blow up the system” proved to be literal. He is the very same Trump that he always was.

Let’s review. 

An early harbinger of things to come was during the 2016 national Republican convention when retired General Michael Flynn whipped up ordinary Main Street Republicans, like our civil friends and neighbors, to a lynch mob type frenzy of “Lock her up.” And the media? They gave him for all practical purposes a free pass. This unacceptable behavior should have been widely condemned as unworthy of a major political party, and dangerous.

Much more was to come. Urging police to rough up prisoners, prompting his followers at rallies to beat up journalists, congratulating a congressman for beating up a foreign reporter, ripping nursing babies from the arms of mothers, all celebrated by his supporters as being a tough guy, “just what we need in the presidency.”

Each celebration of violence and broken norm that was ignored or forgiven encouraged Trump to take the next, even more egregious, step. Escape from the Mueller Report gave him license to demand of the Ukrainian President an investigation of Joe Biden in exchange for receiving congressionally appropriated funds.

Near total Republican support and escape from conviction at the impeachment hearings further vindicated Trump — “He could do no wrong.” Trump’s boast that he could “shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and get away with it” was possibly true, and certainly true if the victim were to be a Liberal.

If he had the “unbelievable powers,” that he claimed, surely he could be president as long as he desired. Drunk with power, he insisted that he could only lose the election if it were rigged.

So he loses the popular vote and the Electoral College soundly. “It had to be rigged.” Denial of results comes close to the edge for some, but not enough to dissuade a majority of Republican congressmen and a handful of Senators — some with Ivy League law degrees who surely knew better — from supporting his claim of a “stolen election.”

With Republicans refusing to publicly congratulate Biden, and Pence’s refusal to follow his orders, in a blind rage Trump inspires his army of insurgents to invade the capitol of the very government over which he presides.

Whaddaya know — the imaginary murder of a Fifth Avenue victim proves vastly different than reality — invading the Capitol, endangering lives of lawmakers, including his own Republicans and VP. 

Better late than never to run from Trump. But spare us the “shock” that violence is happening here. Trump’s violence has long been as visible as the gambling in Rick’s Casino.

— John Waelti is a retired professor of economics. His column appears every Saturday in the Times. He can be reached at jjwaelti1@tds.net.