We in this usually below-the-radar medium size state with only 10 electoral votes are accustomed to being ignored.
The shock of Donald Trump’s 2016 victory changed this. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were assumed to be in the presidential Democratic camp. The slim margins by which Trump won these three states were enough to give him his Electoral College victory.
It’s easy enough to see why the impotent Clinton campaign, with thought no deeper than the Platte River in dry season, and the sleep-walking national Democratic leadership, were so wrong. Wisconsin had voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1988. Therefore, hey, just forget about Wisconsin — and Michigan and working class Pennsylvania as well — and spend your time and money in California, Arizona and Texas.
The Clinton campaign was warned. Michael Moore, the scruffy looking leftist who wears a baseball cap on national TV interviews predicted that Donald Trump would win Michigan. But how could this outlandish character who resembles a 70 level bowler in a Thursday night beer league know anything that the media soothsayers or the Clinton campaign didn’t?
But Michael Moore was right. Trump won Michigan, only by about two votes per precinct, but that was enough.
Democratic ignorance about Wisconsin was just as devastating. Sure, Obama garnered 56% of the vote in 2008 and a 53% of the vote in 2012. But those were outliers and should have been so recognized by anyone paying attention. Bill Clinton won here in 1992 and 1996 but never got more than 50% of the vote. Al Gore’s victory in 2000 was by a slim 5,708 votes. John Kerry’s win in 2004 was by 11,384 votes. The close race between Trump and Clinton was a return to Wisconsin normal, but this time the margin went to Trump, by a mere .77%, enough to get Wisconsin’s measly, but important, 10 electoral votes.
Other signs of danger for Democrats were in plain sight, but totally ignored. How about ultra-conservative Governor Scott Walker’s three victories, including winning a recall race? How about the lackluster Senator Ron Johnson twice beating the highly respected Russ Feingold who worked so well in a bipartisan way with John McCain on campaign finance reform? How about Democrats losing successive races for the State Supreme Court, resulting in a 5-2 conservative majority? How about the 2016 Democratic primary with Bernie Sanders soundly whipping Hillary Clinton? Clearly, she had some work to do here.
It was more convenient to ignore these red flags, assume that the Obama coalition would remain intact, and not bother to show up. Sending daughter Chelsea to talk to Madison’s Democrats doesn’t count.
Even the media nitwits spoke openly of Trump’s most likely, however slim, route to victory, namely, through the industrial Midwest of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. A rational Democratic strategy of closing off this one likely route to a Trump victory was ignored. So, bye bye, to Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And even solidly Democratic neighboring Minnesota barely remained in the Democratic camp, and is a Trump target for 2020.
Does this mean that Wisconsin is solidly red? No, not at all. Democratic statewide victories in 2018, including for governor and attorney general, briefly generated Democratic optimism. However, the margin was slim, and optimism quickly quashed by a succeeding, and surprising, conservative State Supreme Court victory, increasing the conservative majority from 4-3 to 5-2.
Has national Democratic leadership, having been hit over the head by a 2x4, finally paid any attention? Maybe, as indicated by the decision to hold the National Democratic Convention in Milwaukee. Unfortunately, that may not happen.
Democrats can win in Wisconsin. Our former 2nd district Congresswoman, now Senator, Tammy Baldwin, proved it by whipping the once-popular Tommy Thompson in 2012, and soundly whipping another Republican in 2018. Democrats proved it again with the surprising April win over the Trump-endorsed State Supreme Court candidate, moving the conservative State Supreme Court majority from 5-2 back to a slim 4-3 majority.
This latest Democratic victory successfully countered renewed Republican efforts, aided by the Wisconsin and U.S. Supreme Courts, to suppress the vote.
This unexpected Democratic victory is, of course, cause for optimism. However, an article in the conservative “National Review” argues that as this was during a presidential primary, Democratic turnout was inflated. This argument carries less weight than had the race between Biden and Sanders not already been settled. Nevertheless, Democrats should heed that conservative guru’s warning. April’s disproportionate Democratic turnout cannot be counted on in November.
Wisconsin progressive John Nichols, writing for “The Nation,” summarizes some basic focuses necessary to win Wisconsin for the presidency.
“Wisconsin’s identity remains wrapped up in its factories and farms, and the political traditions that extend from them.” Progressive messages work—Sanders won 71 of 72 counties in 2016. Democrats need to address transforming low paying service jobs into high paying jobs of the future.
Democrats need to “organize the hell out of Milwaukee.” In contrast to Democratic Milwaukee, its neighboring counties, Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington, are very Republican. If Milwaukee turnout is low, as in 2016, it cannot be made up by Democrats of the progressive state capital, Madison, and Dane County.
It’s necessary to “organize in Wisconsin’s smaller cities.” Eau Claire and La Crosse in the west; Janesville, Beloit, and Kenosha in the south; Oshkosh Appleton, and Green Bay in the northeast, all send Democrats to the state legislature. These include college communities, and historically industrial centers, several of which have growing minority populations.
“Reconnect with Rural Wisconsin.” As one strategist put it, “Trump didn’t win Wisconsin because of who showed up in 2016. He won because of who didn’t show up.” Rural Wisconsinites who voted twice for Obama before turning to Trump are not racists. Don’t write them off.
Democrats can win this complex state that remains on a knife’s edge if, and only if, they do everything right.
Hey Joe, that includes you and your VP choice showing up.
— John Waelti of Monroe, a retired professor of economics, can be reached at jjwaelti1@tds.net.
