As Yogi Berra is alleged to have observed, “It’s tough to predict stuff, especially when it’s in the future.” True enough, but we can all predict that the remainder of September, and October, will be marked by political chaos not seen in a long time.

With an administration breaking norms and laws — and getting away with it — and a president fanning the flames of chaos upon which he thrives, it can only get more chaotic. Depending on the outcome of the election, and the extent to which it is contested and/or delegitimized, we cannot depend on anything resembling what passes for “normalcy” anytime soon.

The nation is struggling with four crises simultaneously: the Covid-19 pandemic, economic distress, renewed racial strife and climate change. These all have political implications amidst a severely divided nation.

Regarding Covid-19, there is division not just on how to deal with the pandemic, but whether the crisis even exists. Some Trump supporters assert that after the election the pandemic will disappear, implying that this is madness created by Democrats with the aid of the media.

Most other nations have gotten on top of the worst of the pandemic while the US has not. Opening schools and colleges is problematic. No matter the strategy, a substantial portion of citizens will consider decisions to be wrong. Wearing of masks has become politicized. Professional baseball is, and professional and college football will be, played without fans in the stands. The Big 10 is being roasted for canceling, or possibly abbreviating, its season.

The notion that a time-tested, safe vaccine will arrive before November is Pollyannaish. The best we can hope for is progress toward that end.

President Trump wants things to get back to normal. Can’t blame him for that; we would all like to get back to something resembling normalcy. The problem is that Trump wants everything to appear normal, including travel, fans in the stands, frequenting restaurants and bars, and, forget about masks. It’s dangerous to act as if everything is normal when it is not.

The economy — it’s intimately tied to the pandemic. In contrast to a “normal” recession characterized by deficient demand, current unemployment is the result of necessary steps to contain the pandemic. Avoidance of crowds and travel, and social distancing, inevitably reduces spending. Reduced spending means reduced income and employment.

Total national economic disaster was avoided by legislation releasing large government payments to businesses and individuals affected by the pandemic. This emergency fiscal policy enabled some businesses to survive, and it enabled people who otherwise would have faced total economic ruin to at least put food on the table and a roof over their heads, for now. Ominously, continued financial solvency for many depends on future legislation, currently in political deadlock. Ironically, while some businesses are gone for good, and some lost jobs will never return, selected large corporations have done well, contributing to record high financial markets.

Although the economy could be worse off were it not for government action, the pandemic has exacerbated the dangerous inequality of income and wealth. And there remain structural economic problems such as the growing gulf between school districts in distressed economic regions with shrinking tax bases, and districts in richer suburban areas. This issue requires serious attention; there is no easy or consensus solution, and remains unaddressed while more immediate issues get the attention.

Racial strife — this is not new, but a series of police violence has brought it to renewed national attention. Perhaps one thing on which most can agree is that we ask uniformed police forces to do too much, including some things for which they are not well suited. This includes domestic violence and drug overdose, for example. It’s well known that cops hate to get calls on domestic violence. The solution is not to “defund the police,” and that is not what responsible critics are calling for. If anything, reforming law enforcement and maintaining order consistent with constitutionally guaranteed liberty will require reallocation of, and likely increased, resources.

There must be ways to augment police forces with civilian specialists trained to deescalate domestic disputes and deal with non-violent drug issues. EMS personnel, for example, do not have MD or RN degrees, but they are trained to deal with emergencies, and are very effective. Along the same lines, personnel without degrees in psychology or counseling could be trained to deescalate domestic disputes and address non-violent drug issues, freeing up armed uniformed officers for matters that require them.

Reformulation of “what cops are required to do” will require ingenuity and patience. But first, we must get beyond the inflammatory rhetoric that “all cops are bad,” and “all demonstrators are anarchists.”

Climate change — some still deny its existence, some admit its existence but deny that it is caused by humans, while others argue about what can or should be done about it. Compared to other crises, it is tempting to put it aside and deal with it later. But it’s tough to deny the melting of glaciers and rising sea levels. Dealing with it has the political disadvantage of the costs being born now while the benefits are not immediately apparent and born in the future. Legislative bodies and politicians in general are reactive, not proactive. It’s easier to let their successors bear the political price of imposing the costs of dealing with problems now.

These four crises are all urgent and “hot button,” with the nation divided on cause, and solution. Political races are always divisive, but the current scenario promises that political rhetoric will be just plain nasty. Add lax regulation regarding the ability to legally carry loaded weapons of war among public gatherings — what could possibly go wrong here?

Add to this the president’s clear attempt to delegitimize vote-by-mail, and his unwillingness to promise that he will abide by results of the election.

The nation’s ability to undergo peaceful transfer of power should the incumbent be defeated will be tested.

— John Waelti of Monroe, a retired professor of economics, can be reached at jjwaelti1@tds.net. His column appears Saturdays in the Monroe Times.