Hillary Clinton's 10-point victory Tuesday in the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary keeps alive her longshot hope of winning the party's nomination in August. But her prospects aren't much better today than they were before Tuesday.
She still will not beat Barack Obama in the delegate count.
As big as Tuesday's victory was, she only will gain about 15 delegates on Obama as a result. The Illinois senator led the count of pledged delegates by 164. Short of a complete Obama collapse or withdrawal, there just are not enough big states left on the primary calendar for Clinton to make up that ground.
It is highly likely that Obama will end up with the larger number of popular votes after the final primaries June 3. He led the popular vote in contested primaries and caucuses by about 800,000 heading into Pennsylvania, where Clinton cut that margin to about 600,000. Clinton would need to win extremely big in Indiana and North Carolina - neither at all likely - to have a chance at making up all of that ground. Clinton says she already leads the popular vote with results from Florida and Michigan, but that's an argument only her most ardent supporters would make.
Making it even less possible that she can make a stunning rally in the delegate and popular vote totals is the money factor. At the beginning of the month, Obama's campaign had $42 million, while Clinton's was in debt. Expect at least a temporary boost in donations for Clinton after Tuesday's win, but she'll continue to be far outspent by Obama for the remainder of the campaign.
Superdelegates remain Clinton's only path to victory. According to the Associated Press, 258 superdelegates have committed to Clinton thus far, compared to 233 for Obama. There remains 247 unpledged superdelegates. If Clinton is able to garner a significant number of those superdelegates, and win back some others currently leaning toward Obama, she still can win the nomination.
Having party power brokers trump the will of the people is not a good way to win a race. But the Democratic Party's rules allow for it.
Obama, of course, can thwart that threat by doing something he's been unable to do for many weeks - win a big primary. Clinton's roll can be ended with an Obama win in Indiana on May 6, or a crushing victory in North Carolina that same day. But Obama has yet to display the closing capabilities the party will need to win back the White House in November.
If Obama does not seal the deal in Indiana or North Carolina, it's going to be a very interesting - and potentially devastating - summer for Democrats.
Is it likely Clinton will be the party's candidate in November? Certainly not. Is it possible? You bet.
And as long as victory remains possible, why would anyone suggest Clinton quit?
She still will not beat Barack Obama in the delegate count.
As big as Tuesday's victory was, she only will gain about 15 delegates on Obama as a result. The Illinois senator led the count of pledged delegates by 164. Short of a complete Obama collapse or withdrawal, there just are not enough big states left on the primary calendar for Clinton to make up that ground.
It is highly likely that Obama will end up with the larger number of popular votes after the final primaries June 3. He led the popular vote in contested primaries and caucuses by about 800,000 heading into Pennsylvania, where Clinton cut that margin to about 600,000. Clinton would need to win extremely big in Indiana and North Carolina - neither at all likely - to have a chance at making up all of that ground. Clinton says she already leads the popular vote with results from Florida and Michigan, but that's an argument only her most ardent supporters would make.
Making it even less possible that she can make a stunning rally in the delegate and popular vote totals is the money factor. At the beginning of the month, Obama's campaign had $42 million, while Clinton's was in debt. Expect at least a temporary boost in donations for Clinton after Tuesday's win, but she'll continue to be far outspent by Obama for the remainder of the campaign.
Superdelegates remain Clinton's only path to victory. According to the Associated Press, 258 superdelegates have committed to Clinton thus far, compared to 233 for Obama. There remains 247 unpledged superdelegates. If Clinton is able to garner a significant number of those superdelegates, and win back some others currently leaning toward Obama, she still can win the nomination.
Having party power brokers trump the will of the people is not a good way to win a race. But the Democratic Party's rules allow for it.
Obama, of course, can thwart that threat by doing something he's been unable to do for many weeks - win a big primary. Clinton's roll can be ended with an Obama win in Indiana on May 6, or a crushing victory in North Carolina that same day. But Obama has yet to display the closing capabilities the party will need to win back the White House in November.
If Obama does not seal the deal in Indiana or North Carolina, it's going to be a very interesting - and potentially devastating - summer for Democrats.
Is it likely Clinton will be the party's candidate in November? Certainly not. Is it possible? You bet.
And as long as victory remains possible, why would anyone suggest Clinton quit?
