Total world population is just more than 7.3 billion people. The majority of this population lives in what are known as "developing countries." This includes roughly 1.4 billion in China, 1.3 billion in India, and 1 billion in Africa. Although many of these countries have made significant strides in improving the lives of some of their people, many people still remain in poverty and much yet needs to be done.
Characteristics of developing countries include low levels of education, high rates of population growth, and disproportionate income derived from agriculture and natural resources. According to World Bank data, roughly 47 percent of world population is rural, and 70 percent of the world's poorest people live in rural areas.
There is no single, simple solution to economic development. Yet one significant measure with which anyone with experience in developing countries agrees is the importance of education, especially of girls. Based on my two years in Africa and four years in the Sultanate of Oman, I agree 100 percent with this.
The importance of education for young women was recently highlighted by a young Pakistani woman, Malala Yousafzai, the youngest ever Nobel Prize recipient. Miss Yousafzai rose to prominence for advocating human rights and advocacy for education for women in her native province in northwest Pakistan. She has received countless awards and worldwide recognition, and named by Time magazine as one of the 100 Most Influential People in the World through advocating for women's rights.
A less heralded, but highly reputable, report by the World Bank further emphasizes the importance of education of young women to the cause of economic development. It is easy enough to understand the link between education of women and economic development. As women in developing nations have access to elementary, then secondary education and beyond, their options increase beyond early marriage and typically bearing large families.
With later marriage, fewer children, and augmented income, their children will have more options, achieve higher incomes, and in turn, the same for their children. This is not to say that education of boys is neglected, or to say that women don't bear children. But trends tend to reinforce themselves - it is first necessary to break the trap of illiteracy and poverty. The World Bank Report states that girls living in poor households are almost twice as likely as richer peers to marry younger, thereby restricting the opportunities of their children.
The report further states that in all regions, better educated women tend to marry later, have fewer children and "have greater autonomy in making decisions and more power to act in their children's benefit." It is not just a matter of girls going to school, but what happens in schools, such as ensuring gender equality of opportunity, and freedom from abuse. And there are other important factors such as rights of women to own land.
All this has broader implications for society. With all the problems of the world, no nation, developed or developing, can afford to neglect the energy, ability, and talent of half its population. We hear a lot of criticism of the Islamic world for restricting the rights of women. We forget that, here in the U.S., women were not guaranteed the right to vote until well into the 20th century.
Again, to cite my own experience, when I was on the faculty of Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, the Bank of Muscat had a branch on campus. There were women, though still wearing traditional garb, in responsible positions in that bank. I should not have been surprised, as some of the best students were female, and surely had ambitions beyond their traditional roles.
Back to the matter of population, education of women and resultant lower birth rates associated with rising levels of education and income has profound effects. The current rate of world population growth is estimated at about 1.14 percent, down from a high rate of more than 2 percent during the 1960s.
Reduction of a large number by a small percentage has dramatic effects that can be illustrated by the "rule of 72." This rule is derived from a phenomenon in science and mathematics based on the "natural logarithm." If something - money, population, economic growth - grows at a constant compound rate, the doubling time is roughly estimated by dividing 72 by the rate. (Actually, the number is 69.3 point something, but as 72 has more common divisors, it is more convenient while being close enough for horseback estimates.)
For example, if something compounds at 12 percent, it doubles in approximately 6 years. If it compounds at 3 percent, it takes roughly 24 years to double. If world population grows at 2 percent, it takes approximately 36 years to double. But if it compounds at only 1 percent, a seemingly small percentage decrease, doubling time extends from 36 to almost 72 years, a tremendous difference. Although world population is expected to increase by another 50 percent, the rate is expected to decrease and world population expected to stabilize to about 10 billion around year 2062.
The point here is that education of women and rising incomes have combined to reduce the rate of world population growth, and are key factors in further reducing the rate of population growth, and eventually achieve population stability.
Finally, we note that in 1996 First Lady Hillary Clinton wrote a book titled, "It Takes a Village." For this she was harshly criticized, as if she were de-emphasizing the role of family. It is unfortunate that her political detractors chose to demonize her for this. Surely, those of all political persuasion must recognize the role of schools, neighborhoods, churches, and youth organizations as supportive of family efforts to raise productive children.
And surely, education of all children, definitely including girls, is crucial, not only because of a sense of "fairness," but for the broader cause of economic development.
- John Waelti's column appears every Friday in the Times. He can be reached at jjwaelti1@tds.net.
Characteristics of developing countries include low levels of education, high rates of population growth, and disproportionate income derived from agriculture and natural resources. According to World Bank data, roughly 47 percent of world population is rural, and 70 percent of the world's poorest people live in rural areas.
There is no single, simple solution to economic development. Yet one significant measure with which anyone with experience in developing countries agrees is the importance of education, especially of girls. Based on my two years in Africa and four years in the Sultanate of Oman, I agree 100 percent with this.
The importance of education for young women was recently highlighted by a young Pakistani woman, Malala Yousafzai, the youngest ever Nobel Prize recipient. Miss Yousafzai rose to prominence for advocating human rights and advocacy for education for women in her native province in northwest Pakistan. She has received countless awards and worldwide recognition, and named by Time magazine as one of the 100 Most Influential People in the World through advocating for women's rights.
A less heralded, but highly reputable, report by the World Bank further emphasizes the importance of education of young women to the cause of economic development. It is easy enough to understand the link between education of women and economic development. As women in developing nations have access to elementary, then secondary education and beyond, their options increase beyond early marriage and typically bearing large families.
With later marriage, fewer children, and augmented income, their children will have more options, achieve higher incomes, and in turn, the same for their children. This is not to say that education of boys is neglected, or to say that women don't bear children. But trends tend to reinforce themselves - it is first necessary to break the trap of illiteracy and poverty. The World Bank Report states that girls living in poor households are almost twice as likely as richer peers to marry younger, thereby restricting the opportunities of their children.
The report further states that in all regions, better educated women tend to marry later, have fewer children and "have greater autonomy in making decisions and more power to act in their children's benefit." It is not just a matter of girls going to school, but what happens in schools, such as ensuring gender equality of opportunity, and freedom from abuse. And there are other important factors such as rights of women to own land.
All this has broader implications for society. With all the problems of the world, no nation, developed or developing, can afford to neglect the energy, ability, and talent of half its population. We hear a lot of criticism of the Islamic world for restricting the rights of women. We forget that, here in the U.S., women were not guaranteed the right to vote until well into the 20th century.
Again, to cite my own experience, when I was on the faculty of Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, the Bank of Muscat had a branch on campus. There were women, though still wearing traditional garb, in responsible positions in that bank. I should not have been surprised, as some of the best students were female, and surely had ambitions beyond their traditional roles.
Back to the matter of population, education of women and resultant lower birth rates associated with rising levels of education and income has profound effects. The current rate of world population growth is estimated at about 1.14 percent, down from a high rate of more than 2 percent during the 1960s.
Reduction of a large number by a small percentage has dramatic effects that can be illustrated by the "rule of 72." This rule is derived from a phenomenon in science and mathematics based on the "natural logarithm." If something - money, population, economic growth - grows at a constant compound rate, the doubling time is roughly estimated by dividing 72 by the rate. (Actually, the number is 69.3 point something, but as 72 has more common divisors, it is more convenient while being close enough for horseback estimates.)
For example, if something compounds at 12 percent, it doubles in approximately 6 years. If it compounds at 3 percent, it takes roughly 24 years to double. If world population grows at 2 percent, it takes approximately 36 years to double. But if it compounds at only 1 percent, a seemingly small percentage decrease, doubling time extends from 36 to almost 72 years, a tremendous difference. Although world population is expected to increase by another 50 percent, the rate is expected to decrease and world population expected to stabilize to about 10 billion around year 2062.
The point here is that education of women and rising incomes have combined to reduce the rate of world population growth, and are key factors in further reducing the rate of population growth, and eventually achieve population stability.
Finally, we note that in 1996 First Lady Hillary Clinton wrote a book titled, "It Takes a Village." For this she was harshly criticized, as if she were de-emphasizing the role of family. It is unfortunate that her political detractors chose to demonize her for this. Surely, those of all political persuasion must recognize the role of schools, neighborhoods, churches, and youth organizations as supportive of family efforts to raise productive children.
And surely, education of all children, definitely including girls, is crucial, not only because of a sense of "fairness," but for the broader cause of economic development.
- John Waelti's column appears every Friday in the Times. He can be reached at jjwaelti1@tds.net.
