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John Waelti: A regressive policy toward Cuba cannot last
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American foreign policy has some progressive historical highlights - the Marshall Plan that was instrumental in rebuilding postwar Europe, conservative Gen. Douglas MacArthur's introduction of liberal reforms during American occupation of Japan, for example.

Unfortunately, the list of counterproductive American foreign policy blunders is long, and continuing. Among those blunders is American policy toward Cuba. After over a half century of alienation between the two countries, President Obama, with encouragement of a majority of Americans and Cubans, took some long overdue steps to normalize relations. Now President Trump is attempting some ill-advised steps to reverse Obama's policies toward normalization.

Gen. Fulgencia Batista seized power in Cuba in 1940. His repressive regime established ties to Mafia figures including mobsters Lucky Luciano and Meyer Lansky. Cuba became a playground for the world's wealthy and elite. Gambling and prostitution flourished. Drugs were readily available.

During that period American companies owned 40 percent of Cuban sugar, 80 percent of Cuban utilities, most of Cuban cattle ranches, and nearly all of Cuban oil industry.

American businesses flourished, and some Cubans thrived. However, the Batista regime became so repressive and corrupt that it became untenable for the U.S. to continue supporting it. Nevertheless, the regime was staunchly anti-communist during the Cold War, a very important American consideration at the time.

The U.S. wanted an anti-communist Cuban leader and preferred one who was more progressive than Batista. Instead, it was Fidel Castro who prevailed, the successful revolutionary marching through the streets of Havana in 1959 to cheers of Cubans. Cubans who had flourished economically under Batista fled the island nation, many settling in Florida.

American policy toward Cuba took a nasty turn with the Bay of Pigs fiasco. This scheme was hatched under the Eisenhower administration by the CIA and anti-Castro enthusiasts. John F. Kennedy gave the ill-fated plan the green light in 1961. It ended in disaster and was a setback to JFK's presidency.

The situation became extremely dangerous with Soviet introduction of nuclear missiles to Cuba in 1962. Few people today realize how close the world came to nuclear war. Were it not that both the U.S. and the USSR were governed by rational men, nuclear war surely would have been the result.

As communism was seen as the world's greatest menace to America, the Cold War continued through the following decades until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989. The diminished influence of world communism had absolutely no effect on U.S. relations with Castro and Cuba. The anti-Castro Cuban exiles in Florida remained an influential force in American politics, particularly in the Republican Party and Florida. Without the Cuban-American Republican vote, it is likely that George W. Bush would have lost Florida and the 2000 general election.

Economic embargos against Cuba were intended to punish Castro and, even result in the ouster of Cuba's communist government. Instead, Castro used American embargos and American antipathy to enhance his own stature. Instead of punishing Castro, economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. weighed more heavily on ordinary Cubans. American politicians failed to realize that regardless of Castro's faults, the last thing that the majority of Cubans wanted was to have Batista, or anyone resembling him, back.

Embargos, travel restrictions, and all the rest of it remained even after any threat of communism all but disappeared. Some pragmatic American business people realized lost economic opportunities in Cuba. Many younger Cubans, even children of hard liners, began to soften their attitudes. In any case, it's clear that American foreign policy toward Cuba had failed to achieve its stated objectives.

Finally, in 2015 Obama initiated steps to begin normalizing relations with Cuba, and established an embassy in Havana. A majority of Americans, including pragmatic business interests, favored this move. It was met enthusiastically by the masses of Cuban citizens who saw economic opportunity through tourism and generally opening up of travel and trade.

Normalizing of relations was still opposed by many Cuban-Americans and by hardline politicians, mostly Republican, but including a few Democrats as well. Their stance was that "America got nothing in return for liberalizing relations with Cuba." This position fails to recognize that over a half century of embargos and non-recognition of Cuba accomplished absolutely nothing, and played directly into Castro's hands. Change in Cuba must come from within. Normalizing relations with Cuba and opening it up is more likely to bring about constructive change than isolating it.

Moving toward normalizing relations with Cuba is one of Obama's signature achievements.

Enter Donald Trump, taking advantage of a confluence of forces. By attempting to roll back, even partially, Obama's steps toward normalization, Trump achieves several objectives. He plays to a strong and vocal part of his base, the hardline anti-Castro Republicans; he takes some hefty swings at Obama's achievements on which he is fixated; and he gains favor with former adversaries, including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and, especially, Florida's Sen. Rubio.

Sen. Rubio flew from Washington, D.C. to Florida with Trump on Air Force One to announce the partial rollback of Obama's policies. He expressed the flight as a "great thrill," observing that the M&Ms on Air Force One were the best in the world. Presumably, M&Ms are the same the world over. But, no doubt, they would be "special" on Air Force One. The mind can play funny tricks in such a situation, especially on Rubio who would someday like to have Air Force One as his own.

Trump's reversal of Obama's policies is only partial. A majority of Americans, including many Republican businessmen and the vast majority of Cubans themselves, oppose this rollback. Americans can still travel to Cuba, although under tighter restrictions. The American embassy in Havana remains.

The path to normalization of American relations with Cuba has been opened. The case for stronger relations with Cuba is too compelling, and forces of history are simply too strong, to be reversed.

Not even Donald Trump can change that.



- John Waelti of Monroe, a retired professor of economics, can be reached at jjwaelti1@tds.net. His column appears Fridays in the Monroe Times.