MONROE - Frequent rains are keeping many Wisconsin farmers out of the fields and hoping for a warm fall with a late frost, farm reporters and county agents said this week in the USDA Wisconsin crop progress report released Monday.
Topsoil and moisture was in short or very short supply in about 75 percent of southwest Wisconsin and more than 50 percent in the south central region by mid-August, but that has changed. About 70 to 80 percent of southwest and south-central Wisconsin, which includes Green and Lafayette counties, now has adequate topsoil and subsoil moisture. About 20 percent is still in the short range.
The long-awaited rains benefited row crops, but small grains in some areas of Green County took a beating from heavy downpours and wind. The state report noted yellowing crops in low lying areas; accessing fields made difficulty due to muddy conditions; and weeds and mold began appearing in response to the damp conditions.
Local crops ahead of state
The progress report shows winter wheat and oats harvests in the southwest and south-central areas are finished, or nearly finished, much as they have been for the past three weeks.
The third cutting of alfalfa was also stalled. At 70-75 percent done by mid-August, third cuttings are now about 85 percent done, and a fourth cutting is coming on, with the south central region leading the state with about 30 percent cut at the end of last week.
Temperatures last week were above normal across the south and central portions of the state. The heat and precipitation, needed to ensure good cob fill, boosted corn development. The earlier dry, cool conditions and late planting contributed to uneven plant heights and maturity and to concerns that the corn was not developing quickly enough.
At the end of August, about 30 to 40 percent of the corn in the southern districts was in or past the dent stage, about double that of fields in the northern portions of the state. The state average was 23 percent.
Late plantings still have a long way to go before maturity, the USDA reported. About 88 percent of the corn was in or past the dough stage in the southern regions, but only about 55 percent in the north. The state average is 70 percent.
Soybeans are progressing well all across the state, and entering their color change.
US crop forecasts increase
Though the southern counties' crops may be developing ahead of the rest of the state, farmers here will still be competing with the increased harvests across the nation.
The U.S. corn harvest is expected to produce a bumper crop, provided good weather continues to increase yields. The forecasts for soybeans production is also rising.
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service reported Aug. 12 that corn production is forecast at 14 billion bushels, up 1 percent from 2013. Yields are expected to average 167.4 bushels per acre, up 8.6 bushels from 2013. If realized, this will be the highest yield and production on record for the United States.
Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.82 billion bushels, up 16 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average a record high 45.4 bushels per acre, up 2.1 bushels from last year.
All U.S. wheat production, at 2.03 billion bushels, is down 5 percent from 2013. The United States yield is forecast at 43.9 bushels per acre, down 3.3 bushels from last year.
Crop prices decrease
Now comes the bad news for grain farmers: Corn prices were down last week to their lowest levels in four years, and soybeans and some other crops prices have also dropped.
Some commodity analysts are calling 2014 the break-even year, and think corn prices could drop to $3.20 or $3.25 per bushel before bottoming out during harvest in early October, and stay low into 2015.
Net farm income is forecast to be $113.2 billion in 2014, down 13.8 percent from 2013's forecast of $131.3 billion, according to the USDA's 2014 Farm Sector Income Forecast updated Aug. 26. If realized, the 2014 forecast would be the lowest since 2010, but would still remain more than $25 billion above the previous 10-year annual average.
Some meat and dairy production will increase
Lower feed prices encourage producers to raise animals to heavier weights, so in August the USDA predicted the 2014 production of beef, pork, and broilers will rise. It also expects lower feed costs for 2015 to lead to higher cattle, hog, and broiler weights.
Broiler producers are expected to increase bird numbers more rapidly during 2015 than previously forecast. Egg production forecasts are unchanged.
But in the case of beef, reduced feedlot numbers are expected to lead to fewer cattle slaughtered, more than offsetting any gains from carcass weights.
Beef cattle prices have moved into record territory since mid-2013, the USDA reported Sept. 2.
The widespread 2012 drought conditions are still affecting cattle prices, as are the continued droughts particularly in the Plains and Southwest since 2010. Dry weather has degraded pasture conditions and forage supplies, so cow-calf operators liquidate herds while prices are high, rather than retaining them for herd rebuilding. Reduced beef supplies and high prices have led to an estimated 5 percent decline in U.S. per capita beef disappearance (a measure of consumption), as well as a sharp reduction in U.S. net beef exports, between 2011 and 2014.
The milk production forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are raised slightly as lower feed costs are expected to support higher output per cow.
Butter prices and whey price forecasts are raised for 2014 with strength in butter prices expected to carry into 2015.
Cheese prices and nonfat dry milk prices are forecast higher in 2014, but their price forecasts for 2015 are unchanged from last month. Class III and Class IV prices for 2014 are raised on stronger component product prices, and the Class III price forecast for 2015 is raised reflecting strength in whey prices. The all milk price is raised to $23.55 to $23.75 per cwt. for 2014, but remains unchanged at $19.75 to $20.75 per cwt. for 2015.
Shifting economies
Rebuilding herds and flocks is a multi-year process for the animal industries, one that can continue as long as the weather cooperates.
During the past 6 to 7 years, some pasture land and forage production were converted to cash crop production, to take advantage of the high returns. But if cash crops are coming to a bottom, there will be some incentive to convert cash crop land back to animal industry use.
The large harvests and lower crop prices and futures could force some farmers to store their grains, building more on-farm storage, in hopes of prices rebounding to maximize their profits - or minimize their losses.
Long plastic tubes are temporary plastic bag storage systems that have become increasingly popular in the past few years after successful use in Argentina and Canada, according to Scott Irwin, a University of Illinois professor of agricultural and consumer economics, in an Associated Press article Sept. 2. The bags when filled can be the length of a football field and 8 to 10 feet in diameter. They can store grain for several months.
But, while crop farmers are waiting for better prices, there will be less money to spend on agricultural equipment. Deere and Company has seen agricultural equipment sales slumping by about 10 percent in their third and fourth quarter estimates for 2014 compared to 2013, while construction and forestry sales are predicted to have a sizable, 15 percent increase.
Topsoil and moisture was in short or very short supply in about 75 percent of southwest Wisconsin and more than 50 percent in the south central region by mid-August, but that has changed. About 70 to 80 percent of southwest and south-central Wisconsin, which includes Green and Lafayette counties, now has adequate topsoil and subsoil moisture. About 20 percent is still in the short range.
The long-awaited rains benefited row crops, but small grains in some areas of Green County took a beating from heavy downpours and wind. The state report noted yellowing crops in low lying areas; accessing fields made difficulty due to muddy conditions; and weeds and mold began appearing in response to the damp conditions.
Local crops ahead of state
The progress report shows winter wheat and oats harvests in the southwest and south-central areas are finished, or nearly finished, much as they have been for the past three weeks.
The third cutting of alfalfa was also stalled. At 70-75 percent done by mid-August, third cuttings are now about 85 percent done, and a fourth cutting is coming on, with the south central region leading the state with about 30 percent cut at the end of last week.
Temperatures last week were above normal across the south and central portions of the state. The heat and precipitation, needed to ensure good cob fill, boosted corn development. The earlier dry, cool conditions and late planting contributed to uneven plant heights and maturity and to concerns that the corn was not developing quickly enough.
At the end of August, about 30 to 40 percent of the corn in the southern districts was in or past the dent stage, about double that of fields in the northern portions of the state. The state average was 23 percent.
Late plantings still have a long way to go before maturity, the USDA reported. About 88 percent of the corn was in or past the dough stage in the southern regions, but only about 55 percent in the north. The state average is 70 percent.
Soybeans are progressing well all across the state, and entering their color change.
US crop forecasts increase
Though the southern counties' crops may be developing ahead of the rest of the state, farmers here will still be competing with the increased harvests across the nation.
The U.S. corn harvest is expected to produce a bumper crop, provided good weather continues to increase yields. The forecasts for soybeans production is also rising.
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service reported Aug. 12 that corn production is forecast at 14 billion bushels, up 1 percent from 2013. Yields are expected to average 167.4 bushels per acre, up 8.6 bushels from 2013. If realized, this will be the highest yield and production on record for the United States.
Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.82 billion bushels, up 16 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average a record high 45.4 bushels per acre, up 2.1 bushels from last year.
All U.S. wheat production, at 2.03 billion bushels, is down 5 percent from 2013. The United States yield is forecast at 43.9 bushels per acre, down 3.3 bushels from last year.
Crop prices decrease
Now comes the bad news for grain farmers: Corn prices were down last week to their lowest levels in four years, and soybeans and some other crops prices have also dropped.
Some commodity analysts are calling 2014 the break-even year, and think corn prices could drop to $3.20 or $3.25 per bushel before bottoming out during harvest in early October, and stay low into 2015.
Net farm income is forecast to be $113.2 billion in 2014, down 13.8 percent from 2013's forecast of $131.3 billion, according to the USDA's 2014 Farm Sector Income Forecast updated Aug. 26. If realized, the 2014 forecast would be the lowest since 2010, but would still remain more than $25 billion above the previous 10-year annual average.
Some meat and dairy production will increase
Lower feed prices encourage producers to raise animals to heavier weights, so in August the USDA predicted the 2014 production of beef, pork, and broilers will rise. It also expects lower feed costs for 2015 to lead to higher cattle, hog, and broiler weights.
Broiler producers are expected to increase bird numbers more rapidly during 2015 than previously forecast. Egg production forecasts are unchanged.
But in the case of beef, reduced feedlot numbers are expected to lead to fewer cattle slaughtered, more than offsetting any gains from carcass weights.
Beef cattle prices have moved into record territory since mid-2013, the USDA reported Sept. 2.
The widespread 2012 drought conditions are still affecting cattle prices, as are the continued droughts particularly in the Plains and Southwest since 2010. Dry weather has degraded pasture conditions and forage supplies, so cow-calf operators liquidate herds while prices are high, rather than retaining them for herd rebuilding. Reduced beef supplies and high prices have led to an estimated 5 percent decline in U.S. per capita beef disappearance (a measure of consumption), as well as a sharp reduction in U.S. net beef exports, between 2011 and 2014.
The milk production forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are raised slightly as lower feed costs are expected to support higher output per cow.
Butter prices and whey price forecasts are raised for 2014 with strength in butter prices expected to carry into 2015.
Cheese prices and nonfat dry milk prices are forecast higher in 2014, but their price forecasts for 2015 are unchanged from last month. Class III and Class IV prices for 2014 are raised on stronger component product prices, and the Class III price forecast for 2015 is raised reflecting strength in whey prices. The all milk price is raised to $23.55 to $23.75 per cwt. for 2014, but remains unchanged at $19.75 to $20.75 per cwt. for 2015.
Shifting economies
Rebuilding herds and flocks is a multi-year process for the animal industries, one that can continue as long as the weather cooperates.
During the past 6 to 7 years, some pasture land and forage production were converted to cash crop production, to take advantage of the high returns. But if cash crops are coming to a bottom, there will be some incentive to convert cash crop land back to animal industry use.
The large harvests and lower crop prices and futures could force some farmers to store their grains, building more on-farm storage, in hopes of prices rebounding to maximize their profits - or minimize their losses.
Long plastic tubes are temporary plastic bag storage systems that have become increasingly popular in the past few years after successful use in Argentina and Canada, according to Scott Irwin, a University of Illinois professor of agricultural and consumer economics, in an Associated Press article Sept. 2. The bags when filled can be the length of a football field and 8 to 10 feet in diameter. They can store grain for several months.
But, while crop farmers are waiting for better prices, there will be less money to spend on agricultural equipment. Deere and Company has seen agricultural equipment sales slumping by about 10 percent in their third and fourth quarter estimates for 2014 compared to 2013, while construction and forestry sales are predicted to have a sizable, 15 percent increase.