Milk production
Below are changes in August milk production between 2011 and 2012, according to a report by Bob Cropp, Professor Emeritus at the UW Cooperative Extension.
Michigan +5.4%
Wisconsin +4.9%
Minnesota +2.7%
Iowa +2.5%
New York +1.9%
Idaho -0.2%
Pennsylvania -1.7%
Texas -1.9%
New Mexico -2.9%
Arizona -3.8%
California -5.8%
MONROE - Despite the 2012 drought, Wisconsin dairy farmers are keeping their cows and making them happier.
The nationwide forecasts for low milk prices for this year and next remains dismal, especially in the light of high drought-impacted feed costs, causing federally inspected dairy cow slaughter to heat up across the country, according to the USDA Economic Research Service September report, released Tuesday.
But in the state of Wisconsin, something of the opposite appears to be happening. While the number of dairy herds continues to drop, the number of dairy cattle has been on the rise since the beginning of the year.
Not only has the number of milk cows increased, the amount of milk produced by each cow, on average, has risen, giving Wisconsin higher milk production in each month over the previous year.
According Green County agricultural agent Mark Mayer, drought costs hit western dairy states, such as California and Arizona, harder. Dairy farmers there buy most of their feed and some are having to reduce or sell off their herds.
"I'd say about 90 percent of dairy farmers in Wisconsin, and in the county, produce most of their own feed," Mayer said. "The opposite is true in California. California buys all or some of their feed, and they were hit harder by the higher hay and corn prices."
Mayer is hoping Wisconsin can now capture a good share of the milk market, and recent production numbers are already bearing that scenario.
U.S. milk production forecast for the current year was reduced fractionally in September to 199.9 billion pounds compared to the August forecast of 200 billion. The production forecasted for 2013 is 198.9 billion pounds. The reduced milk production forecast for 2012 is based on lower milk per cow of 21,690 pounds.
But production has recently shifted more to the Midwest, with Michigan and Wisconsin making the largest leap.
According to a Sept. 19 report put out by Bob Cropp, Professor Emeritus at the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Extension, August milk production was lower than a year ago in Western states by as much as 5.8 percent in California, 3.8 percent in Arizona, 0.2 percent in Idaho, 2.9 percent in New Mexico and 1.9 percent in Texas. Of these states, only California and Texas still had a few more cows than a year ago. All except Idaho had less milk per cow with decreases of 6.3 percent in California, 3 percent in Texas, 2.8 percent in Arizona and 2.4 percent in New Mexico.
In the Northeast, Michigan's milk production was up 5.4 percent and up 1.9 percent in New York but down 1.7 percent in Pennsylvania due to fewer cows and less milk per cow.
In the Midwest, milk production was up 2.5 percent in Iowa, 2.7 percent in Minnesota and 4.9 percent in Wisconsin. For Wisconsin, cow numbers were 0.6 percent higher and milk per cow was 4.3 percent higher than a year ago.
In August 2012, Wisconsin milk production rose to 2.31 billion pounds, according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. Milk per cow averaged 1,820 pounds in August, up 75 pounds from last year.
There were 1.27 million milk cows in the state during August. This was the same as last month, but 7,000 more than last year. As of Sept. 1, 2012, Wisconsin had 11,378 licensed milk cow herds, down 62 from last month and down 579 from August 2011.
California had 10,000 more cows than last year, but milk per cow fell 6 percent, resulting in a 6 percent drop in production.
Milk production and Feed Costs
The USDA predicts higher milk prices in 2013 will help offset higher feed prices, but gradual herd reduction is still expected for 2013.
Nationwide for most of 2012, high feeding costs and low milk prices have driven year-over-year increases in federally inspected weekly dairy cow slaughter, according to the USDA. The dairy cow slaughter rate and the prices of replacement heifers suggest a continued gradual decline in the dairy herd through 2013.
The U.S. dairy herd is forecast to contract to 9.11 million head in 2013, down from 9.22 million forecast for 2012. Higher apparent culling, combined with higher feed prices, led to a reduced 2012 herd size estimate in August. Dairy cow numbers remain unchanged from August.
Wisconsin's August milk price is expected to average $18.80 per hundredweight (cwt.). This price is $1 more than July's price, but $3.80 lower than August 2011.
California's August milk price is expecting to rise by $1.18 to $16.50 per cwt., while Pennsylvania and Michigan are both anticipating an increase of $1.10 per cwt.
The expected U.S. milk price for August is $17.80 per cwt, 90 cents above July's price, but $1 below Wisconsin's price. All 23 major milk producing states are predicting a price increase from July to August.
Lower milk production per cow is expected in the third and fourth quarters of this year due to high summer temperatures that likely adversely affected not only milk yields but also tight alfalfa supplies.
A reduced milk production forecast for 2012 is based on lower forecast milk per cow of 21,690 pounds. Yield per cow is forecast at 21,830 pounds for 2013. The yield increase next year is largely based on expected larger forage supplies.
The 2012-13 price forecast for corn was lowered from August's projection, to $7.20-$8.60 per bushel. Projections in August stood at $7.50 -$8.90 per bushel, a substantial increase from July's forecast $5.40 - $6.40 per bushel.
Despite a slightly lowered corn yield forecast from August, higher estimated inventories of corn and a lowered export forecast are resulting in larger domestic supply estimates than were made earlier.
The August Agricultural Prices report places the preliminary August price for alfalfa hay at $203 per ton, up slightly from $200 per ton last month and up from August 2011. According to the July Agricultural Prices report, alfalfa hay prices had been steady for the previous two months and up 5 percent from July 2011. The forecast production shortfall in feedstuffs is expected to raise feed prices for dairy producers in both 2012 and into 2013.
The soybean meal price was increased for 2012-13 to $485-$515 per ton, up from $460- $490 a ton projections in August. This is due to a lower soybean crush forecast for 2012-13, as soybean ending stocks are projected to reach a 9-year low.
The nationwide forecasts for low milk prices for this year and next remains dismal, especially in the light of high drought-impacted feed costs, causing federally inspected dairy cow slaughter to heat up across the country, according to the USDA Economic Research Service September report, released Tuesday.
But in the state of Wisconsin, something of the opposite appears to be happening. While the number of dairy herds continues to drop, the number of dairy cattle has been on the rise since the beginning of the year.
Not only has the number of milk cows increased, the amount of milk produced by each cow, on average, has risen, giving Wisconsin higher milk production in each month over the previous year.
According Green County agricultural agent Mark Mayer, drought costs hit western dairy states, such as California and Arizona, harder. Dairy farmers there buy most of their feed and some are having to reduce or sell off their herds.
"I'd say about 90 percent of dairy farmers in Wisconsin, and in the county, produce most of their own feed," Mayer said. "The opposite is true in California. California buys all or some of their feed, and they were hit harder by the higher hay and corn prices."
Mayer is hoping Wisconsin can now capture a good share of the milk market, and recent production numbers are already bearing that scenario.
U.S. milk production forecast for the current year was reduced fractionally in September to 199.9 billion pounds compared to the August forecast of 200 billion. The production forecasted for 2013 is 198.9 billion pounds. The reduced milk production forecast for 2012 is based on lower milk per cow of 21,690 pounds.
But production has recently shifted more to the Midwest, with Michigan and Wisconsin making the largest leap.
According to a Sept. 19 report put out by Bob Cropp, Professor Emeritus at the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Extension, August milk production was lower than a year ago in Western states by as much as 5.8 percent in California, 3.8 percent in Arizona, 0.2 percent in Idaho, 2.9 percent in New Mexico and 1.9 percent in Texas. Of these states, only California and Texas still had a few more cows than a year ago. All except Idaho had less milk per cow with decreases of 6.3 percent in California, 3 percent in Texas, 2.8 percent in Arizona and 2.4 percent in New Mexico.
In the Northeast, Michigan's milk production was up 5.4 percent and up 1.9 percent in New York but down 1.7 percent in Pennsylvania due to fewer cows and less milk per cow.
In the Midwest, milk production was up 2.5 percent in Iowa, 2.7 percent in Minnesota and 4.9 percent in Wisconsin. For Wisconsin, cow numbers were 0.6 percent higher and milk per cow was 4.3 percent higher than a year ago.
In August 2012, Wisconsin milk production rose to 2.31 billion pounds, according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. Milk per cow averaged 1,820 pounds in August, up 75 pounds from last year.
There were 1.27 million milk cows in the state during August. This was the same as last month, but 7,000 more than last year. As of Sept. 1, 2012, Wisconsin had 11,378 licensed milk cow herds, down 62 from last month and down 579 from August 2011.
California had 10,000 more cows than last year, but milk per cow fell 6 percent, resulting in a 6 percent drop in production.
Milk production and Feed Costs
The USDA predicts higher milk prices in 2013 will help offset higher feed prices, but gradual herd reduction is still expected for 2013.
Nationwide for most of 2012, high feeding costs and low milk prices have driven year-over-year increases in federally inspected weekly dairy cow slaughter, according to the USDA. The dairy cow slaughter rate and the prices of replacement heifers suggest a continued gradual decline in the dairy herd through 2013.
The U.S. dairy herd is forecast to contract to 9.11 million head in 2013, down from 9.22 million forecast for 2012. Higher apparent culling, combined with higher feed prices, led to a reduced 2012 herd size estimate in August. Dairy cow numbers remain unchanged from August.
Wisconsin's August milk price is expected to average $18.80 per hundredweight (cwt.). This price is $1 more than July's price, but $3.80 lower than August 2011.
California's August milk price is expecting to rise by $1.18 to $16.50 per cwt., while Pennsylvania and Michigan are both anticipating an increase of $1.10 per cwt.
The expected U.S. milk price for August is $17.80 per cwt, 90 cents above July's price, but $1 below Wisconsin's price. All 23 major milk producing states are predicting a price increase from July to August.
Lower milk production per cow is expected in the third and fourth quarters of this year due to high summer temperatures that likely adversely affected not only milk yields but also tight alfalfa supplies.
A reduced milk production forecast for 2012 is based on lower forecast milk per cow of 21,690 pounds. Yield per cow is forecast at 21,830 pounds for 2013. The yield increase next year is largely based on expected larger forage supplies.
The 2012-13 price forecast for corn was lowered from August's projection, to $7.20-$8.60 per bushel. Projections in August stood at $7.50 -$8.90 per bushel, a substantial increase from July's forecast $5.40 - $6.40 per bushel.
Despite a slightly lowered corn yield forecast from August, higher estimated inventories of corn and a lowered export forecast are resulting in larger domestic supply estimates than were made earlier.
The August Agricultural Prices report places the preliminary August price for alfalfa hay at $203 per ton, up slightly from $200 per ton last month and up from August 2011. According to the July Agricultural Prices report, alfalfa hay prices had been steady for the previous two months and up 5 percent from July 2011. The forecast production shortfall in feedstuffs is expected to raise feed prices for dairy producers in both 2012 and into 2013.
The soybean meal price was increased for 2012-13 to $485-$515 per ton, up from $460- $490 a ton projections in August. This is due to a lower soybean crush forecast for 2012-13, as soybean ending stocks are projected to reach a 9-year low.